Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:34:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x79c8…dfc2 sports 206 markets active 1h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%24W / 182L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 31% −$7
other 22% −$5
politics 22% −$4
economics 7% −$1
crypto 6% −$2
culture 5% −$1
world 4% $0
tech 2% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 11 -0.2% -9.7% 18% 0% -9.7%
all 206 -1.1% -10.5% 12% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.1% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses24 / 182
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)206 / 206
History coverage167d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 206 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 21 $83 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $31 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $159 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 26 $35 $0 -1%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 25 $71 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 25 $79 $0 -0%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 24 $84 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 24 $151 $0 -0%
Will Iowa State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 24 $69 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 23 $201 −$1 -1%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 23 $36 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 23 $97 $0 -0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 23 $42 $0 -0%
Will Florida win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 22 $35 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 22 $39 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 21 $37 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Mar 21 $65 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 21 $191 $0 -0%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 21 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 20 $120 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 20 $120 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 20 $170 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 19 $72 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 18 $33 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 18 $130 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Mar 18 $80 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 18 $82 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 17 $83 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 17 $29 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 16 $41 $0 -0%
Will Akshay Bhatia win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 16 $43 $0 -1%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 15 $32 $0 -0%
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 15 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 15 $123 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 14 $262 −$2 -1%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 13 $226 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 13 $37 $0 +0%
Will Min Woo Lee win the 2026 THE PLAYERS Championship? Mar 12 $43 −$1 -3%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Mar 12 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Mar 12 $121 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Mar 11 $100 $0 -0%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Mar 11 $33 $0 -1%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 10 $223 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 10 $132 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 09 $44 $0 +0%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 09 $45 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 08 $42 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 08 $144 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $40 1h
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $41 5h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $31 7d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $31 7d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $40 20d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $40 20d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $34 34d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $34 34d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $35 87d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $35 88d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 95¢ $35 88d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 95¢ $35 88d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $30 88d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $30 88d
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL Yes 95¢ $30 88d
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY Yes 95¢ $30 88d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $38 88d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $38 89d
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL No 97¢ $34 89d
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY No 97¢ $34 89d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $30 89d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $30 89d
Will Iowa State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL No 94¢ $34 89d
Will Iowa State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY No 95¢ $34 90d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 88¢ $36 90d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 91¢ $37 90d
Netanyahu out by April 30? SELL No 96¢ $36 90d
Netanyahu out by April 30? BUY No 96¢ $36 90d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $41 90d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $42 90d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 786 history records