Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:28:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

79
0x79cc…4d02
crypto · 420 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$1,613 +28%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$110 · open +$217
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$445
Realized+$110
Unrealized+$217
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses192 / 176
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions105
Markets (closed)368 / 420
History coverage15d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day187.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%
Chart Positions 105 History 368 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$40
7 days−$213
14 days+$161
30 days+$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET Up 78¢ 100¢ $59 $75 +$16 (+28%)
Will Deep Fission's market cap be less than $1.25B at market close on IPO day? Yes 1¢ 62¢ $1 $62 +$61 (+6090%)
Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $1.25B and $1.5B at market close on IPO day? Yes 1¢ 30¢ $1 $30 +$29 (+2925%)
Will Deep Fission's market cap be at least $3.0B at market close on IPO day? Yes 1¢ 26¢ $1 $26 +$25 (+2545%)
Will Antonio Villaraigosa finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in Los Angeles County? No 13¢ 100¢ $3 $24 +$21 (+690%)
Ethereal FDV above $25M one day after launch? No 2¢ 26¢ $2 $23 +$21 (+1248%)
Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $2.0B and $2.5B at market close on IPO day? Yes 1¢ 21¢ $1 $21 +$20 (+2025%)
Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $2.5B and $3.0B at market close on IPO day? Yes 1¢ 13¢ $1 $13 +$12 (+1195%)
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in Santa Clara County? No 6¢ 18¢ $4 $12 +$8 (+172%)
Will there be 4 or more ChatGPT outages in June 2026? No 13¢ 48¢ $3 $12 +$9 (+284%)
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in San Diego County? No 18¢ 96¢ $2 $11 +$9 (+437%)
Will Claude Code Commits be less than 500.0k on June 30? No 18¢ 94¢ $2 $11 +$9 (+432%)
Will Deep Fission not IPO before August 2026? Yes 1¢ 12¢ $1 $10 +$10 (+1120%)
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? Yes 1¢ 9¢ $1 $9 +$8 (+785%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win between 40% and 45% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Colombian election? No 3¢ 4¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+24%)
Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in San Francisco City and County? No 3¢ 3¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+9%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 1¢ 6¢ $1 $6 +$5 (+470%)
Will Deep Fission not IPO before August 2026? No 20¢ 88¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+339%)
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? No 18¢ 34¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+94%)
Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+275%)
Will Micron Q3 adjusted gross margin be below 75%? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+325%)
Will Papertrade launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 5¢ 16¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+220%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? No 1¢ 42¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+4050%)
Will Micron Q3 adjusted gross margin be between 77.5% and 80%? Yes 1¢ 5¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+405%)
Will Robert White be the Democratic nominee for DC Delegate? No 18¢ 26¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $213 +$20 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $52 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET Jun 14 $28 +$7 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $60 +$5 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $33 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $92 +$8 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $52 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2AM ET Jun 14 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $37 +$3 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$3 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Will Olivia Rodrigo have a #1 hit in June? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $32 +$3 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +13%
Will Olivia Rodrigo have a #1 hit in the US in June? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Jun 13 $29 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET Jun 13 $136 +$14 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET Jun 13 $36 +$4 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET Jun 13 $76 +$9 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $46 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $18 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $45 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET Jun 13 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Claude go down 0-2 times in June? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $28 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET Jun 12 $68 +$12 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET Jun 12 $17 +$3 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET Jun 12 $27 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $18 +$2 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 91% +$58
weather 4% −$126
other 2% +$423
politics 2% −$27
world 0% +$7
tech 0% +$4
culture 0% −$7
economics 0% −$2
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 228 -44.9% -50.1% 33% 18% -18.7%
≤30d 368 -3.7% -12.9% 52% 29% -10.5%
≤90d 368 -3.7% -12.9% 52% 29% -10.5%
all 368 -3.7% -12.9% 52% 29% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover187.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.9% 29% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -21.2% 7% -19.1%
15% -28.8% 4% -26.9%
20% -35.8% 4% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $445.47 · official $409.02 · 3500 history records