Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:09:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
79 0x79cc…ad4c sports 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$457 (+65%) realized +$468 · open −$11
Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +31% what you keep after slip
Net edge+31%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%17W / 13L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$428
7 days+$511
14 days+$501
30 days+$501
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$432
other 9% +$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+36.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +61.1% +45.7% 61% 61% +77.5%
≤30d 30 +50.3% +36.0% 57% 57% +74.3%
≤90d 30 +50.3% +36.0% 57% 57% +74.3%
all 30 +50.3% +36.0% 57% 57% +74.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +36.0% 57% +74.3%
10% +23.0% 57% +57.6%
15% +11.1% 57% +42.4%
20% +0.2% 50% +28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +93% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +50% · $-wt +93% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late +66% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$14 · ×2.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.84 per $1 lost it wins $3.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$468
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses17 / 13
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)30 / 37
History coverage11d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Yellow Submarine 11¢ 30¢ $11 $30 +$19 (+170%)
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Yellow Submarine 32¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 28 $122 +$283 +233%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $19 +$30 +153%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 27 $20 +$80 +391%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $20 +$52 +253%
Senegal vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 AND Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND S Jun 26 $15 +$28 +189%
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $7 +$9 +134%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $10 +$11 +112%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 26 $5 +$5 +86%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $18 −$18 -98%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 25 $30 +$14 +46%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $39 −$38 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$13 +123%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $27 +$52 +197%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ Jun 24 $20 +$56 +276%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos Jun 24 $24 +$16 +64%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 24 $10 +$5 +49%
Ghana leading at halftime? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 +$4 +87%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni (BO5) - European Pro League Playo Jun 23 $10 +$6 +57%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos Jun 23 $4 −$1 -17%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $19 −$19 -99%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 22 $5 +$14 +276%
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Play Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur BUY Yellow Submarine 11¢ $11 42m
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 32¢ $31 1h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed SELL HULIGANI 78¢ $405 3h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY HULIGANI 15¢ $51 5h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY HULIGANI 36¢ $70 22h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner SELL Power Rangers 100¢ $49 23h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 39¢ $19 26h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo SELL HULIGANI 100¢ $101 26h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY HULIGANI 20¢ $20 27h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner BUY HULIGANI 19¢ $31 28h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 36h
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 2 Winner BUY 4 Anchors and Ilmeria 28¢ $20 43h
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 46¢ $10 45h
Senegal vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 AND Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND S BUY 34¢ $15 46h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 42¢ $7 2d
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score AND Erling Haaland: 1+ goals AN BUY 12¢ $20 2d
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 97¢ $22 2d
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S SELL D family 100¢ $10 2d
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 45¢ $10 2d
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S BUY D family 53¢ $5 2d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 15¢ $18 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 AND Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AN BUY 17¢ $26 2d
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo SELL TEAM VISION 100¢ $44 2d
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY TEAM VISION 68¢ $30 3d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Nigma Galaxy 31¢ $18 3d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 32¢ $31 3d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Nigma Galaxy 31¢ $20 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $23 3d
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-2 BUY 15¢ $51 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.80 · official $28.05 · 58 history records