Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T14:45:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

79
0x79cf…0ec2
crypto · 32 markets active 1h ago
1.0score
−$296 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$296 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$146
Realized−$296
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses27 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)30 / 32
History coverage108d
Avg bet$177
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 2 History 30 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Japan leading at halftime? No 78¢ 78¢ $80 $81 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Japan 77¢ 78¢ $65 $65 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 14 $146 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 31 $145 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 May 18-24? May 25 $545 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 23? May 23 $404 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 23? May 23 $140 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $105 on May 22? May 23 $155 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $100 on May 22? May 23 $249 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 22? May 22 $528 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on May 22? May 22 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 20? May 20 $542 +$1 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 16 $530 +$12 +2%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin May 14 $1 $0 +10%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 14 $1 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Sangal ALTERS vs AaB Esport (BO3) - European Pro Leagu May 14 $2 $0 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 7? May 14 $512 +$13 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 06 $5 $0 +1%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi May 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on March 22? May 06 $516 +$1 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 11 $328 −$328 -100%
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026? Mar 02 $1 $0 +24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 26? Feb 27 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 26? Feb 27 $301 +$1 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? Feb 26 $200 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Feb 26 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Feb 26 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Feb 26 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Feb 26 $98 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Feb 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Feb 26 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Feb 26 $94 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 64% +$6
world 28% −$303
economics 3% $0
tech 3% +$1
other 1% +$1
sports 1% +$1
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 77¢ $65 1h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY No 78¢ $81 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $146 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $146 13d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 100¢ $145 17d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 May 18-24? BUY No 100¢ $545 21d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $404 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $140 22d
Will Solana reach $100 on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $249 22d
Will Solana reach $105 on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $155 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $528 23d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on May 22? BUY No 99¢ $15 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $542 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? BUY No 98¢ $530 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 7? BUY No 98¢ $512 39d
Counter-Strike: Sangal ALTERS vs AaB Esport (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY AaB Esport 96¢ $2 39d
Shanghai Sharks vs. Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin BUY Shanghai Sharks 91¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 39d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? BUY No 100¢ $1 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on March 22? BUY No 100¢ $516 85d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 99¢ $328 107d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $301 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $98 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $94 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $6 108d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 108d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 11 +0.4% -9.2% 91% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 18 +1.2% -8.4% 94% 0% -8.9%
all 30 -4.4% -13.5% 90% 3% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 3% -14.4%
10% -21.8% 3% -22.6%
15% -29.4% 0% -30.1%
20% -36.3% 0% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $145.93 · official $145.93 (match) · 63 history records