Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:13:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x79d0…4dff sports 721 markets active 0h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,861 (-15%) realized −$1,876 · open +$15
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%157W / 561L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day36.3pace
Fees−$226est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$432
7 days+$428
14 days+$295
30 days−$642
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$1,011
weather 21% −$473
other 14% −$328
world 1% −$4
crypto 1% −$33
politics 0% −$4
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +90.8% +72.6% 45% 45% +86.2%
≤30d 378 -14.4% -22.5% 24% 24% -20.3%
≤90d 718 -6.7% -15.6% 22% 22% -24.9%
all 718 -6.7% -15.6% 22% 22% -24.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.6% 22% -24.9%
10% ← realistic here -23.7% 20% -32.1%
15% -31.1% 20% -38.7%
20% -37.8% 19% -44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$11 · ×2.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized−$1,876
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses157 / 561
Est. fees paid−$226
Open positions3
Markets (closed)718 / 721
History coverage75d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day36.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 718 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Caroline Dolehide vs Robin Montgomery Caroline Dolehide 12¢ 14¢ $39 $45 +$6 (+16%)
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina Elina Svitolina 33¢ 68¢ $18 $37 +$19 (+106%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Kimberly Birrell vs Barbora Krejcikova Barbora Krejcikova 45¢ 26¢ $25 $14 −$11 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 432 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart Jun 23 $11 +$31 +268%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Varvara Lepchenko vs Anastasia Gasanova Jun 23 $5 +$8 +152%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery Jun 23 $68 +$105 +155%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Katy Dunne Jun 23 $8 +$21 +251%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Bianca Andreescu vs Polona Hercog Jun 23 $9 −$9 -97%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Gabriela Knutson Jun 23 $17 −$17 -97%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Darja Semenistaja vs Anna Siskova Jun 23 $42 +$86 +205%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Rebeka Masarova vs Jil Teichmann Jun 23 $150 +$181 +121%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Alice Rame vs Caroline Werner Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Luisina Giovannini vs Lucrezia Stefanini Jun 23 $8 −$8 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund Jun 23 $8 +$16 +193%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maddison Inglis vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Talia Gibson vs Madison Keys Jun 23 $19 −$18 -97%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Fiona Crawley vs Himeno Sakatsume Jun 23 $4 +$50 +1213%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Janice Tjen vs Caty McNally Jun 23 $13 −$13 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Alina Korneeva vs Alexandra Shubladze Jun 23 $4 +$8 +197%
Bad Homburg Open: Ann Li vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Jun 23 $8 −$8 -98%
ITF Monastir: Kristina Penickova vs Sofia Avataneo Jun 23 $5 +$23 +443%
Plovdiv: Geoffrey Blancaneaux vs Tomasz Berkieta Jun 23 $6 −$6 -98%
ITF Galati: Ingrid Ioana Sanduleasa vs Alesia Breaz Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon Jun 16 $7 +$4 +67%
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Jun 16 $4 −$1 -19%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 16 $12 −$12 -97%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $6 +$16 +262%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 15 $25 −$23 -89%
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Royan: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Alejandro Moro Canas Jun 15 $11 −$7 -62%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva Jun 15 $11 +$17 +149%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Dublin: Clement Chidekh vs Colton Smith Jun 15 $12 +$8 +69%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $35 +$30 +86%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini Jun 15 $6 +$3 +42%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $11 +$13 +120%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za Jun 15 $5 −$3 -59%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 15 $11 −$11 -98%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $13 −$13 -98%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $22 +$36 +162%
ITF Los Angeles: Kaylan Bigun vs Andrew Johnson Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Kimberly Birrell vs Barbora Krejcikova BUY Barbora Krejcikova 48¢ $10 18m
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina BUY Elina Svitolina 33¢ $18 39m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Kimberly Birrell vs Barbora Krejcikova BUY Barbora Krejcikova 43¢ $15 40m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Caroline Dolehide vs Robin Montgomery BUY Caroline Dolehide 12¢ $15 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Caroline Dolehide vs Robin Montgomery BUY Caroline Dolehide 12¢ $7 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart SELL Zeynep Sonmez 77¢ $42 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Caroline Dolehide vs Robin Montgomery BUY Caroline Dolehide 12¢ $5 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Caroline Dolehide vs Robin Montgomery BUY Caroline Dolehide 13¢ $3 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart BUY Zeynep Sonmez 23¢ $1 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Caroline Dolehide vs Robin Montgomery BUY Caroline Dolehide 13¢ $5 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Caroline Dolehide vs Robin Montgomery BUY Caroline Dolehide 11¢ $4 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart BUY Zeynep Sonmez 20¢ $10 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Varvara Lepchenko vs Anastasia Gasanova SELL Anastasia Gasanova 100¢ $13 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery SELL Roman Andres Burruchaga 71¢ $173 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Katy Dunne SELL Katy Dunne 55¢ $29 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery BUY Roman Andres Burruchaga 36¢ $31 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery BUY Roman Andres Burruchaga 24¢ $15 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery BUY Roman Andres Burruchaga 23¢ $5 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery BUY Roman Andres Burruchaga 20¢ $10 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery BUY Roman Andres Burruchaga 23¢ $7 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Katy Dunne BUY Katy Dunne 15¢ $3 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Bianca Andreescu vs Polona Hercog BUY Polona Hercog $6 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Bianca Andreescu vs Polona Hercog BUY Polona Hercog $3 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Katy Dunne BUY Katy Dunne 15¢ $5 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Gabriela Knutson BUY Gabriela Knutson 13¢ $7 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Gabriela Knutson BUY Gabriela Knutson 12¢ $10 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Varvara Lepchenko vs Anastasia Gasanova BUY Anastasia Gasanova 39¢ $5 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Darja Semenistaja vs Anna Siskova SELL Darja Semenistaja 74¢ $128 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Darja Semenistaja vs Anna Siskova BUY Darja Semenistaja 36¢ $10 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Darja Semenistaja vs Anna Siskova BUY Darja Semenistaja 18¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.62 · official $96.62 (match) · 2820 history records