Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:03:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x79d2…21fe crypto 28 markets active 11d ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (66 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$49 (-16%) realized −$49 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%8W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day66.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% −$83
other 37% +$30
sports 15% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (66 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 28 +16.8% +5.7% 29% 29% -26.5%
≤90d 28 +16.8% +5.7% 29% 29% -26.5%
all 28 +16.8% +5.7% 29% 29% -26.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover66.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.7% 29% -26.5%
10% ← realistic here -4.4% 29% -33.5%
15% -13.7% 25% -39.9%
20% -22.1% 14% -45.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +94% → late -60% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$7 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses8 / 20
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage1d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day66.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$14 -96%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 −$1 -3%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 17 $15 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $6 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 +$3 +40%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$2 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$35 +1620%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $44 +$23 +52%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $16 +$8 +48%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $15 +$7 +48%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $3 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 11d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 75¢ $15 11d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $15 11d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 73¢ $14 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $11 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 11d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $6 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $26 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 11d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 75¢ $25 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 88 history records