trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +1.0% | -8.6% | 50% | 0% | -8.2% |
| ≤30d | 5 | -0.9% | -10.4% | 40% | 0% | -8.5% |
| ≤90d | 10 | -0.7% | -10.2% | 50% | 0% | -9.0% |
| all | 20 | -5.9% | -14.8% | 50% | 0% | -9.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -14.8% | 0% | -9.6% |
| 10% | -23.0% | 0% | -18.2% |
| 15% | -30.4% | 0% | -26.1% |
| 20% | -37.2% | 0% | -33.4% |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? | Jun 25 | $82 | +$3 | +3% |
| Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? | Jun 24 | $68 | $0 | +1% |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Jun 23 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 23 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 31? | May 27 | $6 | −$1 | -9% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 26 | $38 | +$1 | +2% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 26 | $42 | $0 | +1% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | May 25 | $42 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | May 23 | $42 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | May 21 | $29 | −$2 | -6% |
| Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 4? | Dec 14 | $1 | $0 | +8% |
| Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? | Jun 23 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will XRP reach $3.50 in May? | Jun 02 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? | May 20 | $9 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? | May 18 | $11 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Collin Morikawa win The 2025 Masters? | Apr 07 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 21-28? | Mar 29 | $15 | −$4 | -24% |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? | Mar 25 | $29 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21? | Mar 21 | $13 | +$1 | +7% |
| Will 'Opus' gross less than 3m on opening weekend? | Mar 15 | $14 | $0 | -0% |