trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? | No | 5¢ | 3¢ | $2,621 | $1,477 | −$1,145 (-44%) |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? | No | 2¢ | 2¢ | $1,553 | $1,287 | −$266 (-17%) |
| Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 9¢ | 6¢ | $1,708 | $1,186 | −$521 (-31%) |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? | No | 9¢ | 5¢ | $1,070 | $592 | −$478 (-45%) |
| No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $800 | $0 | −$800 (-100%) |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $919 | $0 | −$919 (-100%) |
| Will Trump resign in 2025? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $700 | $0 | −$700 (-100%) |
| Wisconsin Supreme Court election: Susan Crawford vs. Brad Schimel | Schimel | 16¢ | 0¢ | $3,997 | $0 | −$3,997 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Jun 03 | $956 | −$919 | -96% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | Sep 17 | $800 | −$800 | -100% |
| Will Trump resign in 2025? | Sep 03 | $700 | −$700 | -100% |
| Will Trump resign today? | Sep 02 | $1,500 | −$1,292 | -86% |
| Wisconsin Supreme Court election: Susan Crawford vs. Brad Schimel | Apr 01 | $3,997 | −$3,997 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 1 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| ≤90d | 1 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| all | 5 | -97.2% | -97.5% | 0% | 0% | -97.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -97.5% | 0% | -97.6% |
| 10% | -97.7% | 0% | -97.9% |
| 15% | -98.0% | 0% | -98.1% |
| 20% | -98.2% | 0% | -98.2% |