Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:05:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
79 0x79e0…5ee4 other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 171d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$47 (+18%) realized +$52 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +43% what you keep after slip
Net edge+43%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$39
14 days−$39
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% +$55
sports 13% −$11
world 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+42.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -24.2% -31.4% 40% 40% -32.3%
≤30d 5 -24.2% -31.4% 40% 40% -32.3%
≤90d 5 -24.2% -31.4% 40% 40% -32.3%
all 8 +57.9% +42.9% 50% 50% +14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +42.9% 50% +14.2%
10% +29.2% 50% +3.3%
15% +16.7% 50% -6.7%
20% +5.3% 38% -15.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +58% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$18 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$52
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage171d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Conor McGregor win by KO or TKO? Yes 49¢ 36¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 23 $32 −$4 -13%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -94%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $35 +$19 +56%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $96 −$42 -44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 +$8 +36%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 09 $13 +$80 +612%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026? Jan 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Seahawks vs. 49ers Jan 04 $13 +$9 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 41¢ $28 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $32 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $21 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $35 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $42 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 24¢ $45 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $53 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $21 7d
Will Conor McGregor win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 49¢ $21 8d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $93 134d
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 170d
Seahawks vs. 49ers SELL Seahawks 100¢ $22 170d
Seahawks vs. 49ers BUY Seahawks 58¢ $13 170d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $13 170d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.55 · official $14.55 (match) · 16 history records