Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:50:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x79e6…4a42 crypto 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$121 (-8%) realized −$121 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate56%27W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$45
7 days−$50
14 days−$41
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$86
finance 3% −$40
sports 1% +$3
politics 1% +$2
other 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -3.5% -12.7% 22% 11% -40.2%
≤30d 13 +7.7% -2.5% 38% 31% -30.9%
≤90d 48 -9.9% -18.5% 56% 35% -19.5%
all 48 -9.9% -18.5% 56% 35% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 35% -19.5%
10% -26.3% 25% -27.2%
15% -33.4% 17% -34.3%
20% -40.0% 12% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$22 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$121
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses27 / 21
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 47
History coverage59d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026? Jun 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 26 $14 −$5 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 26 $25 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$12 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 26 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$27 +512%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$6 +118%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $10 +$3 +28%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 08 $15 −$5 -33%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 04 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 04 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 04 $15 −$4 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 04 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 04 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 04 $25 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 04 $15 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 04 $10 −$3 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 01 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 01 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 01 $50 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 01 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 01 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 01 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 01 $76 +$27 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 01 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 01 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 01 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 01 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 01 $144 +$110 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 01 $87 +$48 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 01 $26 +$11 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 01 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Apr 30 $26 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Apr 30 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Apr 30 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Apr 30 $6 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Apr 30 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Apr 30 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Apr 30 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Apr 30 $25 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Apr 29 $21 −$1 -5%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 28? Apr 28 $42 −$40 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $11 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 9d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 12d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 95¢ $12 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 137 history records