Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:19:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x79e7…32b9 crypto 236 markets active 12h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$16 (-2%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate50%109W / 111L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day15.9pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$26
14 days−$43
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$69
other 13% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -11.5% -19.9% 45% 28% -18.4%
≤30d 140 -7.7% -16.5% 54% 40% -15.4%
≤90d 220 -8.5% -17.2% 50% 36% -17.0%
all 220 -8.5% -17.2% 50% 36% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 36% -17.0%
10% -25.2% 23% -25.0%
15% -32.4% 15% -32.2%
20% -39.0% 10% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses109 / 111
Open positions16
Markets (closed)220 / 236
History coverage35d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day15.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 220 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $10 $14 +$3 (+33%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-6%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $6 $7 +$0 (+4%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-23%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-21%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$7 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +11%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $15 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +11%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $15 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +52%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $11 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$3 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$3 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 10 $8 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 10 $16 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$3 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$4 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 10 $9 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$2 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 10 $9 −$3 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 09 $7 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 09 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 09 $7 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 09 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 09 $9 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 09 $8 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $9 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $8 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $2 11h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 38h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 38h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 38h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 38h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $8 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $8 38h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 38h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 38h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 38h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 38h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 38h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 38h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 38h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 38h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 38h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 38h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 38h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $6 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $3 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $4 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $6 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.10 · official $66.10 (match) · 604 history records