Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:37:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
79 0x79e7…9088 other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$803 (+26%) realized +$819 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%4W / 6L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$242per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$584now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% +$423
sports 23% +$358
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +28.6% +16.4% 40% 40% +19.1%
≤30d 10 +28.6% +16.4% 40% 40% +19.1%
≤90d 10 +28.6% +16.4% 40% 40% +19.1%
all 10 +28.6% +16.4% 40% 40% +19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.4% 40% +19.1%
10% +5.3% 40% +7.7%
15% -4.9% 40% -2.7%
20% -14.2% 30% -12.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$277 vs −$52 · ×5.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.57 per $1 lost it wins $3.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$584
Realized+$819
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions3
Markets (closed)10 / 13
History coverage4d
Avg bet$242
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $200 $193 −$7 (-4%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $200 $193 −$7 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $303 +$138 +46%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $205 +$665 +325%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $202 +$115 +57%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $304 +$188 +62%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $103 −$100 -97%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $302 −$4 -1%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $301 −$3 -1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $301 −$2 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $301 −$2 -0%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $204 −$200 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $205 2h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $205 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $303 13h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $205 40h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $202 2d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $304 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $206 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 82¢ $298 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $298 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $299 4d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $299 4d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $301 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $301 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 86¢ $301 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $302 4d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $204 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $583.96 · official $583.96 (match) · 25 history records