Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:52:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x79f5…79c7 other 63 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$411 (-8%) realized −$275 · open −$136
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate63%27W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day22.1pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$1,488now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$155
7 days−$399
14 days−$399
30 days−$399
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$860
sports 26% +$191
crypto 8% +$232
world 2% −$100
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +28.4% +16.2% 63% 60% -19.6%
≤30d 43 +28.4% +16.2% 63% 60% -19.6%
≤90d 43 +28.4% +16.2% 63% 60% -19.6%
all 43 +28.4% +16.2% 63% 60% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +16.2% 60% -19.6%
10% ← realistic here +5.0% 58% -27.3%
15% -5.1% 53% -34.3%
20% -14.4% 49% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +42% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$106 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$1,488
Realized−$275
Unrealized−$136
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses27 / 16
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions20
Markets (closed)43 / 63
History coverage8d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day22.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 46¢ $297 $216 −$81 (-27%)
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 60¢ $164 $146 −$18 (-11%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $124 $122 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 85¢ $99 $117 +$18 (+18%)
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 21¢ 14¢ $166 $116 −$51 (-30%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $99 $100 +$1 (+1%)
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 68¢ 67¢ $99 $98 −$1 (-1%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $98 $95 −$2 (-2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 80¢ 81¢ $75 $76 +$2 (+2%)
Will Sweden reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $74 $74 +$0 (+1%)
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 94¢ $41 $60 +$19 (+48%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 83¢ 81¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? No 33¢ 32¢ $49 $48 −$1 (-2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 66¢ 92¢ $23 $33 +$9 (+40%)
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 20¢ 16¢ $24 $19 −$5 (-23%)
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $15 $15 +$1 (+4%)
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Yes 53¢ 56¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Will a player representing Turkiye be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $26 $2 −$24 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $50 +$15 +29%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $50 −$30 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5PM ET Jun 19 $29 −$29 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $100 +$58 +58%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $50 +$55 +109%
Will Austria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $150 −$2 -1%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $100 +$34 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$39 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $15 +$17 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$27 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 18 $50 +$26 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $55 −$55 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $25 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$47 +185%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$32 +79%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $100 +$95 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$26 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$14 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$28 +189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $35 +$31 +87%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $40 +$24 +60%
Uruguay to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? Jun 16 $50 +$46 +93%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $50 +$98 +197%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $510 −$510 -100%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $200 +$96 +48%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $70 +$11 +15%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $50 +$207 +414%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $155 −$155 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $95 +$85 +89%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $200 +$16 +8%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $205 −$205 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $70 +$30 +43%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $75 +$80 +107%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $100 +$55 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $77 −$77 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 79¢ $65 4m
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 30¢ $20 4m
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 71¢ $50 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $50 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $50 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $100 1h
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 68¢ $100 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $100 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $9 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 99¢ $158 1h
Will Sweden reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $0 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $100 4h
Will Austria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 31¢ $149 21h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score SELL No 78¢ $134 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $69 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $15 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $25 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $15 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $30 25h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $50 25h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $100 25h
Will Sweden reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $4 26h
Will Sweden reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $30 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $76 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $50 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $15 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,488.40 · official $1,488.44 (match) · 214 history records