Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:57:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x79f5…552d other 52 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$489 (+10%) realized +$496 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate36%16W / 28L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day17.0pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$1,038now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% +$579
sports 12% −$160
crypto 2% +$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-32.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -25.0% -32.2% 36% 34% +2.1%
≤30d 44 -25.0% -32.2% 36% 34% +2.1%
≤90d 44 -25.0% -32.2% 36% 34% +2.1%
all 44 -25.0% -32.2% 36% 34% +2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.2% 34% +2.1%
10% -38.7% 32% -7.6%
15% -44.6% 30% -16.6%
20% -50.0% 23% -24.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -49% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$105 vs −$43 · ×2.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$1,038
Realized+$496
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses16 / 28
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions8
Markets (closed)44 / 52
History coverage5d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $410 $407 −$3 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $410 $407 −$3 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $101 $101 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $69 $69 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $32 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $63 +$6 +10%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $304 +$173 +57%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $257 +$316 +123%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $489 +$229 +47%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $52 −$50 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 22 $22 −$22 -98%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $17 −$16 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $65 −$63 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $22 +$73 +325%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $106 −$106 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $297 +$180 +61%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 22 $32 +$123 +388%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $115 −$114 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $319 +$141 +44%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $19 −$18 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $73 +$51 +70%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $232 +$107 +46%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $72 −$70 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $64 −$62 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $194 −$191 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +12%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $48 −$47 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $14 −$8 -59%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $13 −$13 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $6 −$5 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $71 +$52 +74%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $124 +$77 +62%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $59 −$58 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $22 +$13 +57%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $60 +$20 +32%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $45 +$112 +250%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $113 −$111 -99%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $32 4m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $32 4m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $32 7m
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 7m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $64 13m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $64 14m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $32 16m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $32 16m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $32 18m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $319 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $319 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $65 1h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $19 17h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $19 17h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 69¢ $45 17h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $36 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $124 23h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $22 23h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $74 23h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $32 23h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 23h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 24h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $230 24h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 29¢ $65 24h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $238 24h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,038.40 · official $1,038.40 (match) · 109 history records