Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:23:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x79fc…2cce crypto 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 318d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$283 (-9%) realized −$296 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate48%16W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days−$109
14 days−$117
30 days−$117
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$198
other 6% −$75
sports 5% −$6
world 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-31.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -31.2% -37.7% 40% 40% -44.4%
≤30d 13 -31.3% -37.8% 38% 38% -41.5%
≤90d 13 -31.3% -37.8% 38% 38% -41.5%
all 33 -24.0% -31.3% 48% 39% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.3% 39% -19.8%
10% -37.8% 33% -27.5%
15% -43.8% 27% -34.5%
20% -49.3% 24% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$54 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

318d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized−$296
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses16 / 17
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)33 / 36
History coverage318d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 26¢ $20 $30 +$10 (+50%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $33 +$15 +46%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $19 +$14 +70%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $81 −$80 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $20 +$18 +90%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $29 +$24 +83%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 +$21 +105%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 9, 10PM ET Aug 10 $100 +$100 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 12AM ET Aug 10 $219 −$219 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 9, 10PM ET Aug 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 9, 9PM ET Aug 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 9, 12PM ET Aug 10 $50 +$50 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 9, 11AM ET Aug 09 $100 +$98 +98%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 9, 11AM ET Aug 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 9, 9AM ET Aug 09 $288 +$34 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 9, 10AM ET Aug 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 9, 8AM ET Aug 09 $100 −$23 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 9, 7AM ET Aug 09 $303 +$9 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 12PM ET Aug 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 9, 6AM ET Aug 09 $387 −$100 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 9, 5AM ET Aug 09 $300 +$156 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 9, 1AM ET Aug 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 9, 4AM ET Aug 09 $100 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 11PM ET Aug 09 $100 +$27 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 1PM ET Aug 09 $100 +$28 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down on August 8? Aug 09 $171 +$3 +2%
Will Elon tweet 360–374 times August 1–August 8? Aug 08 $9 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $33 30h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $19 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $30 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $20 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $20 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 4d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 52¢ $20 4d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 54¢ $29 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $20 6d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $20 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 7d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 36¢ $10 8d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 12AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $219 316d
Ethereum Up or Down - August 9, 10PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $200 316d
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 9, 10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $100 316d
Ethereum Up or Down - August 9, 10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $20 316d
Ethereum Up or Down - August 9, 10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $20 316d
Ethereum Up or Down - August 9, 10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $22 316d
Ethereum Up or Down - August 9, 10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $35 316d
Ethereum Up or Down - August 9, 10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 316d
Ethereum Up or Down - August 9, 9PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $40 316d
Ethereum Up or Down - August 9, 9PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $20 316d
Ethereum Up or Down - August 9, 9PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $40 316d
Ethereum Up or Down - August 9, 12PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $49 316d
Ethereum Up or Down - August 9, 12PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $0 316d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.40 · official $73.40 (match) · 80 history records