Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:13:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x79ff…ff4e world 78 markets active 0h ago coverage 536d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-1%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate35%27W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$13
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$5
other 21% −$3
politics 15% $0
sports 13% −$10
economics 4% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.5% -9.9% 33% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 25 -1.9% -11.2% 28% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 68 -0.5% -10.0% 29% 1% -9.7%
all 78 -1.9% -11.3% 35% 1% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 1% -10.0%
10% -19.8% 1% -18.6%
15% -27.5% 0% -26.5%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

536d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses27 / 51
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)78 / 78
History coverage536d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 78 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $35 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $31 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 16 $71 −$3 -4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $72 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $4 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $122 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $40 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $36 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $37 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $83 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $36 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $262 −$9 -3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $141 −$1 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $39 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 31 $39 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 29 $1 −$1 -38%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 29 $75 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $115 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $47 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $39 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $40 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $4 $0 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $10 −$1 -6%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $2 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 19 $53 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 18 $36 +$8 +24%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $1 $0 +1%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $53 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 16 $35 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $1 $0 -6%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $36 $0 -1%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $39 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $138 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $78 −$2 -3%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 20 $83 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $42 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 18 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 18 $80 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $124 $0 +0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 16 $42 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $50 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $90 $0 -0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 15 $3 $0 -6%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 14 $41 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 12 $38 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $38 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $35 18m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $35 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 64¢ $31 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $11 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $20 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 82¢ $13 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 86¢ $21 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 86¢ $34 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $35 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $35 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $8 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $24 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $32 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $1 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $4 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 46¢ $31 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $5 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $30 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 79¢ $35 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 84¢ $37 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $19 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $18 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 94¢ $40 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 94¢ $40 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $36 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $36 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 328 history records