Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:40:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7A 0x7a04…e31b other 66 markets active 7h ago coverage 601d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$34 (+0%) realized +$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate23%15W / 50L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$281per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$13
other 13% −$9
politics 9% −$8
sports 1% +$64
culture 1% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
world 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 17 +7.2% -3.1% 18% 6% -8.2%
≤90d 52 +2.4% -7.3% 23% 13% -8.1%
all 65 +1.9% -7.8% 23% 11% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 11% -9.4%
10% -16.7% 11% -18.0%
15% -24.7% 9% -26.0%
20% -32.1% 8% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$2 · ×4.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

601d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized+$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses15 / 50
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)65 / 66
History coverage601d
Avg bet$281
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $76 $76 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $20 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $14 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $26 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $15 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $130 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $15 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? Jun 02 $43 $0 +0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $27 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi May 30 $21 $0 -0%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $23 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $25 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $16 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $21 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $119 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 18 $121 $0 -0%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies May 18 $9 +$10 +124%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $114 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $117 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $108 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $106 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $105 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 26 $107 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 26 $106 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 25 $106 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $116 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $114 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $110 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $106 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $227 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $108 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $113 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 23 $112 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $114 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $112 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $111 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 14 $112 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $113 $0 -0%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 8? Apr 10 $7 $0 +0%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 10 $9 +$7 +72%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $13 −$13 -100%
Flames vs. Golden Knights Apr 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers Apr 06 $16 +$6 +42%
Devils vs. Rangers Apr 02 $26 −$26 -100%
Knicks vs. Thunder Apr 02 $23 +$7 +32%
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? Apr 02 $44 +$1 +3%
Rockets vs. Timberwolves Mar 27 $33 +$35 +108%
Backpack FDV above $3B one day after launch? Mar 25 $22 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $20 6h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $20 9h
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $76 46h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $14 5d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 5d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $26 6d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 6d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $15 11d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $15 11d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $22 12d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $22 13d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $15 14d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 14d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $27 16d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $27 16d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $21 16d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $21 17d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $23 17d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 17d
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $33 19d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $25 23d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $25 23d
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? BUY No 100¢ $43 23d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $16 24d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 24d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $21 25d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $21 25d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $119 28d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $119 28d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $121 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.11 · official $76.11 (match) · 259 history records