Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:14:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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7A 0x7a0a…e7b7 crypto 196 markets active 2h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,476 (-22%) realized −$529 · open −$947
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate88%150W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$2,304now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days+$19
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% −$945
other 34% −$8
crypto 31% −$1,498
politics 0% −$2
sports 0% +$3
tech 0% $0
weather 0% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 10 +173.1% +147.1% 30% 30% -9.0%
≤90d 70 +18.1% +6.9% 79% 9% -9.2%
all 170 +9.2% -1.2% 88% 9% -40.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.2% 9% -40.8%
10% -10.7% 5% -46.5%
15% -19.3% 4% -51.7%
20% -27.2% 4% -56.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$80 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$2,304
Realized−$529
Unrealized−$947
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses150 / 20
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions25
Markets (closed)170 / 196
History coverage133d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 170 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 50¢ 92¢ $1,137 $2,081 +$944 (+83%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 50¢ 8¢ $1,137 $193 −$944 (-83%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 92¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 93¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 9¢ 16¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+83%)
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? Yes 18¢ 7¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-62%)
Base FDV above $4B one day after launch? Yes 38¢ 48¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 81¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 87¢ 86¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? Yes 66¢ 65¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 38¢ 36¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 39¢ 37¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 85¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 26¢ 23¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 18¢ 15¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 49¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 51¢ 43¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $2,232 −$4 -0%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 5? Jun 14 $1 +$24 +2286%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump dance on May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals Jun 01 $2 +$2 +109%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 29 $1 +$2 +222%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +2%
BNB Up or Down - May 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 17 $1 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 13 $1 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - May 9, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 9, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 09 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 09 $1 +$2 +146%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 18 $1 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Apr 18 $1 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 18 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - April 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Apr 18 $1 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Apr 18 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Apr 18 $1 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - April 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Apr 18 $1 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Apr 18 $1 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - April 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Apr 18 $1 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Apr 18 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 18 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - April 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Apr 18 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Apr 18 $1 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Apr 18 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - April 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Apr 18 $1 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - April 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Apr 18 $1 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - April 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Apr 18 $1 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - April 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Apr 18 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - April 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 18 $1 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Apr 18 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Apr 18 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Apr 18 $1 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Apr 18 $1 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - April 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Apr 18 $1 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - April 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 18 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $2,228 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $2,232 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Spain win on 2026-0 BUY 12¢ $1 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 5? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 17d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 17d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 93¢ $2 20d
Will Donald Trump dance on May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 23d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Gujarat Titans 47¢ $2 23d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 27d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 27d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 27d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 27d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 27d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 27d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $5 34d
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 35d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 35d
BNB Up or Down - May 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 35d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 39d
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 39d
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 41d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 43d
XRP Up or Down - May 9, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 43d
Solana Up or Down - May 9, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 43d
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,304.17 · official $2,304.18 (match) · 429 history records