Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:50:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7a0a…b70b other 19 markets active 4d ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$106 (-17%) realized −$106 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate16%3W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 55% −$73
other 37% −$26
world 8% −$4
sports 1% −$3
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -10.8% -19.3% 25% 25% -24.4%
≤30d 12 -10.8% -19.3% 25% 25% -24.4%
≤90d 12 -10.8% -19.3% 25% 25% -24.4%
all 19 -15.0% -23.1% 16% 16% -25.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.1% 16% -25.6%
10% -30.4% 16% -32.7%
15% -37.2% 16% -39.2%
20% -43.3% 16% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$106
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses3 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage235d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +56%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 −$3 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $7 −$6 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $13 +$9 +68%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $5 $0 -3%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $5 $0 -3%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $5 $0 -4%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $5 $0 -2%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$8 +82%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$3 -55%
US recession in 2025? Oct 26 $17 −$5 -27%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Oct 26 $48 −$4 -9%
Fed rate hike in 2025? Oct 26 $4 −$1 -29%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 26 $212 −$17 -8%
Weed rescheduled in 2025? Oct 26 $151 −$18 -12%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 26 $100 −$50 -50%
Will the Government shutdown end October 27-30? Oct 21 $1 $0 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $4 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $7 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $8 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $15 5d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 71¢ $1 5d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 71¢ $1 5d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 65¢ $2 5d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 63¢ $2 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 50¢ $2 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 36¢ $3 5d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes $2 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 36¢ $2 5d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 5d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 6d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 71¢ $3 6d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 71¢ $3 6d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 65¢ $3 6d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 63¢ $3 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 50¢ $2 6d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 6d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 6d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 6d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 51¢ $5 6d
US recession in 2025? SELL Yes $0 234d
US recession in 2025? SELL No 95¢ $1 234d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.66 · official $33.66 (match) · 383 history records