Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:03:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7A 0x7a0c…1833 sports 173 markets active 0h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$757 (+12%) realized +$764 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate61%105W / 66L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$74est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$139now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$60
7 days+$67
14 days+$278
30 days+$405
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$716
crypto 1% −$14
other 1% +$19
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +16.7% +5.6% 75% 42% -2.3%
≤30d 44 +9.4% -1.0% 80% 36% +0.4%
≤90d 117 +16.0% +5.0% 74% 44% +2.1%
all 171 +3.8% -6.1% 61% 38% +1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 38% +1.3%
10% -15.1% 29% -8.4%
15% -23.3% 22% -17.3%
20% -30.8% 14% -25.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$3 · ×2.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.51 per $1 lost it wins $4.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$139
Realized+$764
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses105 / 66
Est. fees paid−$74
Open positions2
Markets (closed)171 / 173
History coverage147d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 171 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Indonesia vs Thailand Indonesia 37¢ 35¢ $147 $139 −$8 (-5%)
Will New Zealand win? Yes 18¢ 44¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+142%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bermuda vs Bahamas Jun 21 $63 +$8 +13%
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Los Angeles Knight Riders - Com Jun 21 $67 +$49 +74%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 20 $25 +$2 +8%
Will New Zealand win? Jun 19 $11 +$12 +115%
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Nigeria vs Hong Kong, China Jun 18 $64 +$7 +11%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Malawi vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 18 $123 +$2 +2%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil Jun 18 $56 −$1 -1%
Will the match end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 $0 +46%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi Jun 17 $3 −$1 -28%
Will England win? Jun 17 $3 $0 +8%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Malawi Jun 15 $373 +$9 +2%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria Jun 15 $45 −$22 -50%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil Jun 14 $177 +$4 +2%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Thailand vs United Arab Emirates Jun 13 $37 +$11 +29%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $293 +$19 +7%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Indonesia vs Oman Jun 10 $25 +$15 +60%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: China vs Saudi Arabia Jun 09 $537 +$160 +30%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Philippines vs United Arab Emirates Jun 09 $135 +$2 +2%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Oman vs Philippines - Completed match? Jun 07 $12 $0 +1%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Oman vs Philippines Jun 07 $243 +$6 +3%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Bahrain vs Japan Jun 07 $18 +$2 +9%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: China vs United Arab Emirates Jun 07 $3 −$1 -32%
ICC Cricket World Cup League Two: Canada vs USA - Who wins the toss? Jun 06 $41 +$1 +2%
ICC Cricket World Cup League Two: Canada vs USA Jun 06 $63 +$4 +7%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Oman vs Saudi Arabia Jun 06 $23 +$10 +46%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Pakistan vs West Indies Jun 03 $8 −$1 -15%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Bahrain vs Myanmar Jun 03 $46 +$6 +14%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: China vs Oman Jun 03 $48 +$5 +11%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Indonesia vs Singapore Jun 03 $34 +$1 +4%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Bhutan vs Hong Kong, China Jun 03 $25 +$14 +56%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Bangladesh Jun 02 $6 $0 +0%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Malaysia vs China Jun 02 $5 −$1 -19%
T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Kenya vs Ivory Coast May 30 $257 +$72 +28%
T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Kenya vs Botswana - W May 29 $104 +$1 +1%
T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Kenya vs Cameroon May 28 $4 +$1 +32%
T20 Asian Games, Women, Qualifier: China vs Nepal May 27 $26 $0 -0%
T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Ivory Coast vs Camero May 26 $215 +$2 +1%
T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Ivory Coast vs Camero May 26 $11 +$4 +34%
T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Mali vs Rwanda May 26 $231 +$11 +5%
T20 Asian Games, Women, Qualifier: China vs Indonesia May 25 $13 −$1 -6%
T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Ivory Coast vs Mali May 25 $45 +$2 +4%
T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Kenya vs Rwanda May 25 $16 −$16 -97%
T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Kenya vs Mali May 23 $7 +$1 +19%
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A: Croatia vs Austria May 23 $141 +$2 +2%
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A: Cyprus vs Croatia May 22 $36 −$12 -35%
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A: France vs Switzerland May 22 $41 +$24 +59%
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A: Austria vs Sweden May 22 $10 −$4 -46%
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A: Croatia vs Jersey May 20 $15 +$5 +30%
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A: Sweden vs Malta May 20 $18 −$17 -97%
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A: Cyprus vs Switzerland May 20 $17 −$7 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Indonesia vs Thailand BUY Indonesia 36¢ $10 27m
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Indonesia vs Thailand BUY Indonesia 36¢ $10 27m
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Indonesia vs Thailand BUY Indonesia 36¢ $10 27m
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Indonesia vs Thailand BUY Indonesia 36¢ $6 27m
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Indonesia vs Thailand BUY Indonesia 37¢ $1 27m
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Indonesia vs Thailand BUY Indonesia 37¢ $1 27m
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Indonesia vs Thailand BUY Indonesia 37¢ $23 27m
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Indonesia vs Thailand BUY Indonesia 37¢ $12 27m
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Indonesia vs Thailand SELL Indonesia 44¢ $5 45m
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Indonesia vs Thailand SELL Indonesia 44¢ $3 46m
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Indonesia vs Thailand SELL Indonesia 44¢ $9 46m
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Indonesia vs Thailand SELL Indonesia 44¢ $18 46m
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Indonesia vs Thailand SELL Indonesia 44¢ $9 46m
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Indonesia vs Thailand SELL Indonesia 44¢ $44 47m
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Indonesia vs Thailand SELL Indonesia 42¢ $32 52m
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Indonesia vs Thailand BUY Indonesia 36¢ $65 1h
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Indonesia vs Thailand BUY Indonesia 38¢ $41 1h
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Indonesia vs Thailand BUY Indonesia 38¢ $38 1h
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Indonesia vs Thailand BUY Indonesia 39¢ $34 1h
Will New Zealand win? SELL Yes 52¢ $5 3h
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bermuda vs Bahamas SELL Bahamas 17¢ $17 12h
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bermuda vs Bahamas SELL Bahamas 11¢ $54 13h
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bermuda vs Bahamas BUY Bahamas 8¢ $8 13h
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bermuda vs Bahamas BUY Bahamas 9¢ $9 13h
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bermuda vs Bahamas BUY Bahamas 11¢ $46 13h
Will New Zealand win? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 23h
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Los Angeles Knight Riders - Com SELL Yes 97¢ $116 25h
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Los Angeles Knight Riders - Com BUY Yes 55¢ $67 30h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Yes 94¢ $8 2d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Yes 92¢ $9 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $139.46 · official $139.46 (match) · 837 history records