Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:40:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7a0d…53f7 world 260 markets active 0h ago coverage 618d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
Total PnL −$6,318 (-16%) realized −$3,966 · open −$4,082
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate39%91W / 144L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$4,570now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,026
7 days−$3,202
14 days−$683
30 days−$2,955
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% −$2,025
finance 28% −$4,241
politics 6% −$579
sports 5% −$438
other 3% −$508
culture 0% −$171
crypto 0% −$79
economics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +28.4% +16.2% 37% 37% -49.0%
≤30d 69 +52.3% +37.8% 45% 42% -22.4%
≤90d 132 +20.2% +8.8% 39% 37% -23.5%
all 235 +4.8% -5.2% 39% 33% -22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 33% -22.3%
10% -14.2% 29% -29.7%
15% -22.5% 24% -36.5%
20% -30.1% 20% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$72 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

618d coverage
Net worth$4,570
Realized−$3,966
Unrealized−$4,082
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses91 / 144
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions30
Markets (closed)235 / 260
History coverage618d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 235 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Yes 24¢ 10¢ $5,889 $2,629 −$3,261 (-55%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 32¢ 20¢ $1,404 $888 −$516 (-37%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $613 $623 +$10 (+2%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $120 $205 +$85 (+71%)
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? Yes 13¢ 3¢ $298 $76 −$222 (-74%)
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $63 $43 −$20 (-31%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Yes 11¢ 4¢ $68 $25 −$43 (-63%)
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 15? Down 49¢ 36¢ $29 $21 −$8 (-27%)
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 37¢ 21¢ $22 $12 −$10 (-43%)
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $3 $8 +$5 (+150%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Yes 23¢ 5¢ $35 $8 −$27 (-79%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Yes 50¢ 6¢ $50 $6 −$43 (-88%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $23 $6 −$17 (-75%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 43¢ 42¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 44¢ 30¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-31%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 70¢ 60¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-14%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? Yes 65¢ 42¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-35%)
James Comey charges dropped by July 31? Yes 16¢ 6¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-66%)
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+22%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-75%)
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by June 30? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-61%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? No 36¢ 24¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-35%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Yes 10¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-78%)
Will Aaron Baker be the Republican nominee for FL-06? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 14 $5,295 −$4,034 -76%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 14 $1,212 +$1,050 +87%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 13 $70 −$42 -59%
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Jun 12 $29 +$5 +16%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $25 −$6 -24%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 11 $31 −$23 -73%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 11 $68 −$20 -30%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? Jun 11 $75 −$26 -35%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 11 $134 −$88 -66%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 11 $125 −$13 -10%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $33 +$7 +21%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $46 −$15 -32%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 10 $53 −$27 -52%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $11 +$9 +78%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $68 −$66 -98%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $3 +$22 +761%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 08 $31 +$67 +216%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Jun 07 $24 +$5 +19%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $717 +$1,834 +256%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 07 $190 +$341 +179%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $3 +$5 +171%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5 Jun 07 $2 +$35 +1685%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $3 +$1 +28%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 07 $1 +$3 +300%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 05 $2 +$7 +365%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 05 $1 $0 +23%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $11 $0 +5%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 02 $2,209 +$291 +13%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $156 +$42 +27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 31 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 30 $5 +$5 +91%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $545 +$390 +72%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? May 29 $407 −$101 -25%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $157 −$5 -3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 29 $1,516 −$586 -39%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? May 29 $1,131 −$350 -31%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 27 $319 −$174 -55%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 27 $247 −$208 -84%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 27 $592 +$15 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $526 +$66 +12%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7? May 26 $6 +$24 +384%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 26 $39 +$167 +428%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? May 25 $182 −$182 -100%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 25 $439 −$368 -84%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $352 −$239 -68%
Iran leadership change by December 31? May 25 $1,158 −$142 -12%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 25 $347 −$288 -83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 21¢ $105 2m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 19¢ $103 7m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 7m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 23¢ $114 10m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 12m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 19¢ $310 14m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $26 14m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $28 14m
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $488 21m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 32¢ $506 22m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 31¢ $17 22m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 31¢ $22 22m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 31¢ $1 22m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 31¢ $144 22m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $18 29m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $12 30m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 30m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 32m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $11 33m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 35m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 42m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 45m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 46m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 48m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 49m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 49m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 49m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 50m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,570.28 · official $4,570.28 (match) · 1745 history records