Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:46:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7a0d…168e world 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 313d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate38%12W / 20L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% +$2
politics 21% +$1
sports 15% $0
other 8% $0
crypto 7% $0
economics 6% $0
finance 5% $0
culture 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.2% -10.7% 0% 0% -10.7%
≤30d 7 +1.5% -8.1% 57% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 7 +1.5% -8.1% 57% 0% -8.8%
all 32 +0.1% -9.4% 38% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.0% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.2 per $1 lost it wins $2.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

313d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses12 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage313d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 91¢ 92¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $42 −$1 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $47 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $76 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $40 +$3 +7%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $1 $0 +9%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $12 $0 -4%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 20 $10 $0 +2%
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in August? Aug 20 $5 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August? Aug 20 $44 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Antoine Massey in 2025? Aug 20 $48 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 350–374 times August 15–August 22? Aug 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 18 $5 $0 -0%
Will "Nobody 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $8.5-10m? Aug 18 $5 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 525–549 times August 15–August 22? Aug 18 $5 −$1 -11%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Zelensky events on August Aug 18 $12 $0 +1%
Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31? Aug 17 $41 $0 -0%
Trump x Zelenskyy meet on Monday? Aug 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31? Aug 17 $45 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Aug 17 $5 $0 -0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Aug 17 $46 $0 +0%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15? Aug 17 $40 +$1 +1%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 16 $34 $0 +0%
Will Chow Hang‑tung win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 16 $34 $0 +0%
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 16 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 16 $34 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 16 $34 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 15 $48 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 14 $48 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $42 2h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $8 8h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $30 8h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $4 8h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $32 10h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $10 10h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $47 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $47 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 46¢ $27 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 46¢ $14 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 46¢ $33 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 46¢ $7 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $43 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 75¢ $40 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $35 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $13 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $22 11d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 12d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 12d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 12d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $11 13d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $12 13d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 307d
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in August? SELL No 99¢ $5 307d
Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August? SELL No 99¢ $11 307d
Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August? SELL No 99¢ $34 307d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.32 · official $42.32 (match) · 99 history records