Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:38:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7a0e…17e3 sports 80 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$8 (-4%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate18%14W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day324.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$14
sports 33% −$6
other 13% −$3
world 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 -11.2% -19.7% 18% 10% -21.0%
≤30d 80 -11.2% -19.7% 18% 10% -21.0%
≤90d 80 -11.2% -19.7% 18% 10% -21.0%
all 80 -11.2% -19.7% 18% 10% -21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover324.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.7% 10% -21.0%
10% ← realistic here -27.4% 1% -28.5%
15% -34.4% 0% -35.4%
20% -40.8% 0% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses14 / 66
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)80 / 80
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day324.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 80 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$2 -25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -16%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$2 -19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$4 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -29%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$1 -16%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$1 -19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$1 -15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$1 -12%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $1 $0 -2%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 -5%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 -8%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $1 $0 -2%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 $0 -7%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 -2%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 -3%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 -4%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 $0 -4%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $1 $0 -2%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 14 $1 $0 -6%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $1 $0 -5%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -3%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 14 $1 $0 -2%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 -10%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -47%
CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 -13%
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 $0 -7%
Spread: CD Universidad Católica (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 -17%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $1 $0 -15%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 -21%
CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción: Draw at half Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 -17%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 $0 -12%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 16¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 324 history records