Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:08:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7a10…9977 world 624 markets active 21h ago coverage 85d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 85d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$606 (-9%) realized −$605 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate44%260W / 328L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day39.3pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$175now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$1
14 days−$46
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$61
other 20% +$19
sports 11% +$33
politics 8% −$19
culture 4% −$15
tech 2% +$14
crypto 1% −$6
finance 1% −$3
economics 0% −$14
weather 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +5.9% -4.2% 64% 36% -8.4%
≤30d 178 -1.5% -10.9% 46% 31% -11.3%
≤90d 588 -3.6% -12.8% 44% 27% -8.5%
all 588 -3.6% -12.8% 44% 27% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.8% 27% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 20% -17.2%
15% -28.8% 15% -25.2%
20% -35.7% 12% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$175
Realized−$605
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses260 / 328
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions36
Markets (closed)588 / 624
History coverage85d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day39.3
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 36 History 588 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 90¢ 99¢ $27 $30 +$3 (+10%)
FDA approves Retatrutide this year? No 74¢ 88¢ $7 $9 +$1 (+19%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 80¢ 86¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+7%)
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? No 79¢ 96¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+21%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? No 81¢ 86¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+5%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Yes 47¢ 54¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+15%)
Weed rescheduled by December 31? No 57¢ 73¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+27%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? No 45¢ 45¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? No 7¢ 10¢ $5 $8 +$2 (+44%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 24¢ 30¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+21%)
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? No 71¢ 73¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01? Yes 65¢ 55¢ $6 $6 −$1 (-15%)
Flávio Bolsonaro charged or arrested by September 30? Yes 33¢ 26¢ $7 $5 −$1 (-22%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? No 85¢ 98¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+15%)
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? No 65¢ 56¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? No 81¢ 80¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? No 29¢ 14¢ $8 $4 −$4 (-50%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 63¢ 74¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+17%)
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? No 92¢ 92¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? No 87¢ 88¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No 22¢ 16¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-27%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? No 82¢ 66¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-20%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 15¢ 26¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+70%)
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No 75¢ 90¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 81 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 14 $11 −$3 -24%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 13 $8 +$1 +11%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $4 $0 -7%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $4 +$2 +44%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +14%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $20 −$1 -3%
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 10 $10 $0 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 10 $4 +$1 +26%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $5 $0 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $14 −$5 -38%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $23 −$13 -56%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $7 +$2 +24%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? Jun 07 $8 $0 -3%
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Jun 07 $24 −$2 -10%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 07 $8 +$4 +51%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $6 −$2 -40%
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $2 $0 -5%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $1 $0 -7%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $8 $0 +2%
SpaceX vs Tesla - higher valuation on June 30? Jun 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -68%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 7? Jun 07 $3 −$2 -64%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $14 −$1 -8%
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? Jun 07 $2 $0 +3%
Another pandemic before GTA VI? Jun 07 $5 $0 -7%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -87%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $20 −$12 -61%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 06 $8 +$1 +17%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in June? Jun 06 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 06 $24 −$8 -32%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 06 $43 −$4 -9%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $15 +$5 +37%
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of Jun 05 $7 −$1 -16%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $2 +$1 +22%
US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31? Jun 01 $1 +$1 +52%
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2 $0 +1%
Swalwell, Mills, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick all out by May 31? Jun 01 $6 +$3 +56%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $37 +$2 +6%
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +25%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? May 31 $7 $0 +1%
Will Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? May 30 $6 −$1 -18%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 29 $8 +$3 +35%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31? May 29 $10 +$8 +78%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $8 +$1 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 27 $139 −$4 -3%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the May 27 $12 $0 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? May 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 60¢ $3 20h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 60¢ $3 21h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $1 29h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $3 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 24¢ $0 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 39h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $1 40h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 41h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 52¢ $9 44h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $2 45h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? BUY No 45¢ $5 46h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $2 46h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $2 46h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $1 46h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $2 46h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $1 46h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $3 47h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $5 47h
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June SELL No 69¢ $3 2d
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June BUY No 74¢ $4 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $4 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 31¢ $1 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 34¢ $2 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 41¢ $4 2d
Flávio Bolsonaro charged or arrested by September 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 79¢ $1 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 78¢ $8 2d
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $5 2d
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? BUY No 82¢ $1 2d
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? BUY No 66¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $174.70 · official $174.49 (match) · 3500 history records