Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:06:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7a10…a128 other 254 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$43 (-0%) realized −$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%11W / 242L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$291per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$20
14 days−$27
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$51
sports 25% −$29
culture 8% −$11
politics 8% −$6
crypto 6% +$51
economics 5% −$5
world 3% −$4
tech 1% −$1
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 58 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 178 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 253 +0.0% -9.5% 4% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×11.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses11 / 242
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)253 / 254
History coverage137d
Avg bet$291
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 253 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $93 $93 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $705 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $392 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $280 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $600 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $856 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $465 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $437 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $881 −$2 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $163 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $193 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $238 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $655 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $356 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $531 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $679 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $440 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $310 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 14 $635 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $201 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $567 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $643 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $536 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $261 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $581 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $239 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $661 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 11 $640 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1,085 −$1 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $352 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $946 −$2 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $719 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $227 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $479 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $592 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $338 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $370 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $867 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $724 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $611 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $453 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $760 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $177 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 01 $325 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $284 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $109 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $752 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $539 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? May 30 $266 −$1 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 29 $111 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $93 1h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $93 1h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $93 2h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $93 17h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $93 19h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $21 19h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $72 19h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $94 21h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $94 26h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $94 28h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $94 29h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $94 32h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $94 32h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $94 34h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $94 41h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $95 42h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $95 45h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $95 47h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $85 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $10 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $95 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $76 2d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $20 2d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $20 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $10 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $10 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $96 2d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $96 2d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $96 2d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $96 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.16 · official $93.16 (match) · 1400 history records