Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:37:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7A 0x7a12…40d8 sports 115 markets active 8h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$82 (+4%) realized +$83 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%50W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$102
7 days+$204
14 days+$173
30 days+$173
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$44
other 8% +$27
world 1% −$10
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 +31.6% +19.1% 48% 48% +8.0%
≤30d 63 +29.5% +17.2% 48% 48% +4.9%
≤90d 101 +9.9% -0.6% 46% 45% -6.5%
all 110 +9.1% -1.3% 45% 44% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.3% 44% -6.4%
10% -10.8% 43% -15.4%
15% -19.4% 40% -23.6%
20% -27.3% 39% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$12 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized+$83
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses50 / 60
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions5
Markets (closed)110 / 115
History coverage96d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Over 47¢ 46¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Canada 53¢ 52¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$10 -51%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$11 +105%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$14 +140%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$23 +442%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $13 +$8 +62%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $19 −$19 -99%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Amen Thompson: Rebounds O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 17 $59 −$59 -100%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-4.5) Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$9 +89%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $11 +$15 +134%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $14 +$14 +101%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$4 -37%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $5 +$31 +598%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$15 +145%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$10 +97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$35 +344%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $17 +$43 +248%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$7 -72%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$6 -58%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 +$12 +114%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 $0 -4%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$23 +223%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$25 +249%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$9 +86%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $10 +$9 +93%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 +$12 +118%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $351 +$92 +26%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $10 +$10 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $12 7h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 7h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 53¢ $10 7h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 7h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $10 7h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $10 13h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 13h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 16h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $21 17h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $19 25h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $9 25h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 27h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 27h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 27h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $10 27h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $10 28h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $13 29h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $19 32h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $26 33h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $11 34h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $10 35h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 37h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? SELL Yes 58¢ $36 38h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $14 39h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $25 39h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $10 2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.24 · official $51.25 (match) · 241 history records