Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:33:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7A 0x7a13…6cf7 other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 148d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$24 (+5%) realized +$25 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$47
7 days+$47
14 days+$47
30 days+$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$24
crypto 25% −$1
sports 16% +$18
world 12% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +57.2% +42.3% 100% 100% +42.3%
≤30d 1 +57.2% +42.3% 100% 100% +42.3%
≤90d 2 +30.7% +18.2% 100% 50% +18.6%
all 7 -9.8% -18.4% 71% 43% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 43% -8.0%
10% -26.2% 29% -16.8%
15% -33.4% 29% -24.9%
20% -39.9% 14% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% too few recent
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$40 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$125
Realized+$25
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage148d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $126 $125 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $83 +$47 +57%
Real Madrid CF leading at halftime? Apr 15 $80 +$3 +4%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $50 +$23 +47%
Will "DtMF" be played last at the Super Bowl halftime show? Feb 09 $6 $0 +5%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31? Feb 02 $74 −$74 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $63 +$11 +18%
Rams vs. Seahawks Jan 26 $30 −$5 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $130 2h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $130 2h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $83 6d
Real Madrid CF leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 68d
Real Madrid CF leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $83 68d
Real Madrid CF leading at halftime? BUY Yes 96¢ $80 68d
Seahawks vs. Patriots SELL Seahawks 100¢ $73 133d
Will "DtMF" be played last at the Super Bowl halftime show? SELL Yes 99¢ $6 133d
Will "DtMF" be played last at the Super Bowl halftime show? BUY Yes 94¢ $6 133d
Seahawks vs. Patriots BUY Seahawks 68¢ $50 134d
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31? BUY No 4¢ $74 140d
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $63 147d
Rams vs. Seahawks SELL Seahawks 100¢ $38 147d
Rams vs. Seahawks BUY Rams 4¢ $5 147d
Rams vs. Seahawks BUY Seahawks 66¢ $25 147d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124.90 · official $124.90 (match) · 22 history records