Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:02:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
7A 0x7a14…28b1 other 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 554d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate23%14W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$296per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$8
14 days−$0
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 74% −$14
politics 17% −$8
other 5% +$4
world 1% +$1
sports 1% +$4
crypto 1% +$1
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +22.3% +10.6% 33% 17% -0.6%
≤30d 20 +5.6% -4.5% 20% 10% -8.4%
≤90d 49 +1.2% -8.4% 22% 14% -9.1%
all 61 +0.6% -9.0% 23% 11% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 11% -9.6%
10% -17.7% 11% -18.2%
15% -25.6% 11% -26.1%
20% -32.9% 10% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×2.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

554d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses14 / 47
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)61 / 63
History coverage554d
Avg bet$296
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Will Solana reach $120 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $6 +$8 +134%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $11 $0 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $17 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $14 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $12 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $15 $0 -0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $15 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $90 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $14 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $16 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 02 $29 $0 +0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $12 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $88 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $17 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $85 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 22 $15 $0 -0%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins May 22 $8 +$7 +79%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 13 $76 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $72 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $70 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $72 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $73 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $77 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $71 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $78 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 01 $73 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $74 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $77 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 24 $73 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $74 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 23 $72 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $74 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $76 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $79 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $80 $0 -0%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $7 +$5 +79%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $10 +$5 +55%
Rockets vs. Suns Apr 08 $9 +$8 +93%
Predators vs. Kings Apr 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Flames vs. Golden Knights Apr 06 $12 +$6 +45%
Timberwolves vs. 76ers Apr 06 $18 +$14 +76%
Based FDV above $800M one day after launch? Apr 02 $21 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? Apr 02 $42 $0 +1%
High Point Panthers vs. Wisconsin Badgers Mar 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 05 $4 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $38 1h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $13 25h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $13 27h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 42¢ $6 27h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $11 2d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $11 2d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $17 2d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $17 2d
Will Solana reach $120 in June? BUY No 99¢ $20 6d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $14 6d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $14 6d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $12 8d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $12 8d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $15 9d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 10d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 47¢ $8 11d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $15 13d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $15 13d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $15 14d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $15 15d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $14 15d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 15d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $16 16d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 16d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $12 18d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 18d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $15 20d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $15 20d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $20 22d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $17 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.85 · official $57.85 (match) · 230 history records