Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:08:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7a14…d748 sports 572 markets active 27d ago coverage 44d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 44d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (73 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$88,812 (+29%) realized +$88,812 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate63%360W / 212L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$536per market
Trades / day72.7pace
Fees−$4,094est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 44d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$22,674
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (73 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +25.7% +13.7% 67% 67% -21.0%
≤90d 572 -1.7% -11.1% 63% 52% -16.2%
all 572 -1.7% -11.1% 63% 52% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover72.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 52% -16.2%
10% -19.6% 39% -24.2%
15% ← realistic here -27.4% 29% -31.6%
20% -34.5% 19% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$234 vs −$505 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$88,812
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses360 / 212
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$4,094
Open positions0
Markets (closed)572 / 572
History coverage44d ⚠
Avg bet$536
Trades / day72.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 572 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - CCT Europe Clos May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner May 19 $0 $0 +57%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 53 and 54 million views on day 4 May 19 $0 +$1 +120%
Counter-Strike: EYEBALLERS vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner Apr 29 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs fnatic - Map 2 Winner Apr 29 $2 −$1 -33%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A Apr 29 $5 $0 -10%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs fnatic - Map 1 Winner Apr 29 $1 $0 +21%
Counter-Strike: Players vs R2 Esports Club (BO3) - CCT South America S Apr 29 $1 −$1 -77%
Counter-Strike: Players vs R2 Esports Club - Map 2 Winner Apr 29 $2 +$1 +36%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Apr 29 $175 −$56 -32%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Apr 29 $20 +$11 +52%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Apr 29 $43 +$3 +6%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Chinggis Warriors (BO3) - ESL Challenger Leag Apr 29 $76 −$76 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Chinggis Warriors - Map 2 Winner Apr 29 $39 +$11 +28%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs Eternal Fire - Map 2 Winner Apr 29 $404 −$400 -99%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs Eternal Fire - Map 1 Winner Apr 29 $423 −$419 -99%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Johnny Speeds - Map 2 Winner Apr 29 $239 +$174 +73%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Johnny Speeds (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode Apr 29 $226 −$113 -50%
Counter-Strike: Incognito vs InControl (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ Apr 29 $74 +$25 +34%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs ASTRAL - Map 1 Winner Apr 29 $277 +$4 +2%
Counter-Strike: ODDIK vs Keyd - Map 1 Winner Apr 29 $129 −$129 -100%
Counter-Strike: ODDIK vs Keyd (BO3) - ESL Challenger League South Amer Apr 29 $172 +$148 +86%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 2 Winner Apr 29 $164 −$164 -100%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion Black (BO3) - VCL North Americ Apr 29 $208 −$208 -100%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Reign Above - Map 2 Winner Apr 29 $133 +$8 +6%
Counter-Strike: regain vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - ESL Challenger League N Apr 29 $100 +$23 +22%
Counter-Strike: regain vs Wanted Goons - Map 2 Winner Apr 29 $202 +$56 +28%
Counter-Strike: regain vs Wanted Goons - Map 1 Winner Apr 29 $126 +$91 +72%
Counter-Strike: Incognito vs InControl - Map 1 Winner Apr 29 $143 +$40 +28%
Counter-Strike: ODDIK vs Keyd - Map 2 Winner Apr 29 $119 +$61 +51%
Counter-Strike: FURIA fe vs paiN Academy - Map 1 Winner Apr 28 $238 +$200 +84%
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs 9z Team (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: ACE Ma Apr 28 $13 −$2 -19%
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs ShindeN - Map 2 Winner Apr 28 $153 +$15 +10%
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs ShindeN (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Apr 28 $10 $0 +4%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs Phantom (BO3) - ESL Challenge Apr 28 $158 +$52 +33%
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Damajuana (BO3) - CCT South America S Apr 28 $18 +$1 +7%
Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs Bounty Hunters Esports - Map 1 Winne Apr 28 $182 +$94 +52%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs ASTRAL - Map 2 Winner Apr 28 $46 −$44 -96%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Leo Team (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europ Apr 28 $94 +$57 +61%
Counter-Strike: Young Ninjas vs UNiTY esports - Map 1 Winner Apr 28 $205 −$204 -100%
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs Isurus - Map 1 Winner Apr 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs Isurus - Map 2 Winner Apr 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Tricked - Map 1 Winner Apr 28 $18 −$18 -100%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Wildcard (BO3) - FRAG Playoffs Apr 28 $148 −$148 -100%
Counter-Strike: Zomblers vs regain (BO3) - ESL Challenger League North Apr 28 $179 −$179 -100%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner Apr 28 $203 −$203 -100%
Valorant: MIBR vs Cloud9 - Map 2 Winner Apr 28 $205 −$205 -100%
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs MOUZ NXT (BO3) - Conquest of Prague O Apr 28 $320 −$320 -100%
Counter-Strike: Imperial Academy vs LPH Gaming - Map 2 Winner Apr 28 $265 −$265 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Nemiga - Map 2 Winner Apr 28 $298 −$296 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - CCT Europe Clos BUY ASTRAL 83¢ $1 27d
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner SELL 100 Thieves 11¢ $1 27d
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner BUY 100 Thieves 7¢ $0 27d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 53 and 54 million views on day 4 SELL Yes 6¢ $1 27d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 53 and 54 million views on day 4 SELL Yes 5¢ $0 27d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 53 and 54 million views on day 4 BUY Yes 3¢ $0 27d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 53 and 54 million views on day 4 SELL Yes 5¢ $0 27d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 53 and 54 million views on day 4 BUY Yes 2¢ $0 27d
Counter-Strike: EYEBALLERS vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner BUY Young Ninjas 6¢ $0 46d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs fnatic - Map 2 Winner SELL fnatic 5¢ $0 46d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs fnatic - Map 2 Winner BUY fnatic 45¢ $1 46d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs fnatic - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Nemesis 75¢ $1 46d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs fnatic - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 67¢ $1 46d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A SELL Vitality 100¢ $1 46d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A BUY Vitality 89¢ $1 46d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A SELL FUT Esports 7¢ $0 46d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A BUY FUT Esports 24¢ $1 46d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs fnatic - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Nemesis 100¢ $2 46d
Counter-Strike: Players vs R2 Esports Club (BO3) - CCT South America S SELL Players 10¢ $0 46d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs fnatic - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 82¢ $1 46d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A SELL Vitality 100¢ $1 46d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A BUY Vitality 92¢ $1 46d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A SELL Vitality 83¢ $1 46d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A BUY Vitality 81¢ $1 47d
Counter-Strike: Players vs R2 Esports Club (BO3) - CCT South America S BUY Players 41¢ $1 47d
Counter-Strike: Players vs R2 Esports Club - Map 2 Winner SELL Players 67¢ $2 47d
Counter-Strike: Players vs R2 Esports Club - Map 2 Winner BUY Players 48¢ $2 47d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 70¢ $18 47d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 77¢ $8 47d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 77¢ $28 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records