Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T11:25:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7A
0x7a15…df69
other · 246 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$5 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$30 · open −$8
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$187
Realized−$30
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses21 / 104
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions121
Markets (closed)125 / 246
History coverage5d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day299.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%
Chart Positions 121 History 125 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$30
14 days−$30
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes 37¢ 38¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+3%)
Will there be 4 or more ChatGPT outages in June 2026? No 33¢ 48¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+47%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? No 70¢ 72¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: China vs Saudi Arabia China 97¢ 50¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-48%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? Yes 32¢ 28¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 98¢ 98¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Will there be 4 or more ChatGPT outages in June 2026? Yes 72¢ 52¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-28%)
Amazon 2026 capex above $180B? No 10¢ 17¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+70%)
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2026? No 31¢ 20¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-34%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? No 33¢ 42¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+27%)
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%? No 18¢ 22¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+22%)
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? No 34¢ 67¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+97%)
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 25¢ 62¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+148%)
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 94¢ 96¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? No 87¢ 90¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 97¢ 97¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by June 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-14%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June? No 74¢ 71¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? No 92¢ 86¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Amazon 2026 capex above $180B? Yes 92¢ 83¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026? Yes 41¢ 36¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-13%)
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Yes 30¢ 51¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+70%)
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? No 60¢ 98¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 14 $1 $0 -31%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 14 $1 +$2 +163%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +168%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 14 $2 $0 -23%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 14 $1 $0 -17%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $1 $0 -9%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 -14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -7%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 -10%
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -48%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 13 $1 $0 -38%
Spread: Washington Mystics (-2.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day? Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on US Spoti Jun 13 $1 +$1 +68%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 12 $3 $0 +1%
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? Jun 12 $1 $0 -8%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 -6%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $1 $0 -2%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 12 $0 $0 -94%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 -9%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $12 $0 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 -8%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $2 $0 -17%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 -8%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 12 $1 $0 +31%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 -6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $1 $0 -24%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 -3%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 -24%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $3 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 +15%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 -22%
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 -2%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $2 −$1 -49%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $1 $0 +43%
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 +36%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 -16%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -2%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 12 $1 +$7 +658%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $2 $0 +11%
Will Trump announce no pick for the next Director of National Intellig Jun 11 $2 +$1 +32%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $1 $0 -15%
Will Taylor Fritz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 11 $1 $0 -2%
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Jun 11 $1 $0 -43%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 11 $1 $0 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 31% −$20
sports 21% −$11
world 16% −$4
politics 13% +$5
tech 10% −$4
finance 3% −$2
economics 2% −$1
culture 2% −$1
crypto 1% +$4
weather 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? SELL No 35¢ $0 7m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? SELL No 29¢ $0 45m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? SELL No 28¢ $0 57m
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 75¢ $0 1h
Will Ninjas in Pyjamas win the LPL 2026 season? SELL No 99¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? SELL No 28¢ $0 1h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 75¢ $0 1h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 75¢ $0 1h
Will Ninjas in Pyjamas win the LPL 2026 season? SELL No 99¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will Ninjas in Pyjamas win the LPL 2026 season? SELL No 99¢ $0 1h
Will Ninjas in Pyjamas win the LPL 2026 season? SELL No 99¢ $0 1h
Will Ninjas in Pyjamas win the LPL 2026 season? SELL No 99¢ $0 1h
Will Ninjas in Pyjamas win the LPL 2026 season? SELL No 99¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? SELL No 28¢ $0 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? SELL No 27¢ $0 2h
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 79¢ $0 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? SELL No 27¢ $0 2h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 SELL No 63¢ $0 3h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 66¢ $0 4h
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 79¢ $0 4h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $1 5h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 5h
Will Trump say "Buy Dell Computer / Buy a Dell Computer" in June? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? SELL No 100¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? SELL No 69¢ $0 6h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $0 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? SELL No 26¢ $0 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? SELL No 24¢ $0 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 125 -14.3% -22.5% 17% 11% -20.5%
≤30d 125 -14.3% -22.5% 17% 11% -20.5%
≤90d 125 -14.3% -22.5% 17% 11% -20.5%
all 125 -14.3% -22.5% 17% 11% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover299.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.5% 11% -20.5%
10% ← realistic here -29.9% 9% -28.1%
15% -36.7% 6% -35.0%
20% -42.9% 5% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $187.35 · official $183.05 · 1588 history records