Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:34:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
7A 0x7a16…33db sports 41 markets active 5h ago coverage 502d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$60,109 (-16%) realized −$60,109 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate61%25W / 16L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9,198per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$208est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$94,264
7 days−$91,777
14 days−$111,916
30 days−$91,925
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 74% −$26,050
sports 17% −$15,404
crypto 5% −$17,923
other 4% +$834
politics 0% −$1,831
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +10.9% +0.4% 60% 60% -80.9%
≤30d 12 +4.0% -5.9% 58% 50% -52.5%
≤90d 20 -2.5% -11.8% 55% 50% -26.2%
all 41 -1.7% -11.0% 61% 54% -24.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 54% -24.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 44% -31.3%
15% -27.3% 27% -37.9%
20% -34.4% 15% -44.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$6,514) neutral
Persistence
early +4% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3,541 vs −$9,307 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

502d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$60,109
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses25 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$208
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage502d
Avg bet$9,198
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $18,364 −$1,421 -8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $93,856 −$92,843 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,805 +$1,690 +94%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,290 +$518 +40%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $1,012 +$280 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 02 $155 −$155 -100%
World Championships: Canada vs. Finland Jun 02 $19,985 −$19,985 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $18,163 +$20,281 +112%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $9,220 +$878 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $29,669 −$1,229 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 23 $102 +$45 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 23 $51 +$17 +33%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 25 $46,099 +$28,699 +62%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 20 $19,358 +$7,521 +39%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 16 $42,915 +$12,064 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Apr 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $3,491 +$5,492 +157%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $3,146 −$2,681 -85%
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $2,000 −$1,974 -99%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025? Mar 28 $17,730 −$17,730 -100%
Will the NDP win 9 or more seats in the 2025 Canadian federal election May 01 $1,831 −$1,831 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Clippers Apr 13 $1,610 −$1,610 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Suns Feb 12 $998 +$612 +61%
Super Bowl LIX Winner Feb 10 $2,490 −$2,490 -100%
Hawks vs. Wizards Feb 09 $1,854 +$636 +34%
Spurs vs. Hornets Feb 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Bucks vs. Hawks Feb 08 $2,601 +$315 +12%
Islanders vs. Jets Feb 08 $1,738 +$116 +7%
Predators vs. Blackhawks Feb 08 $1,588 +$150 +10%
Magic vs. Nuggets Feb 07 $1,028 +$344 +34%
Pacers vs. Jazz Feb 06 $4,352 −$4,352 -100%
Spurs vs. Grizzlies Feb 04 $3,021 +$1,331 +44%
Pelicans vs. Nuggets Feb 03 $3,121 −$99 -3%
Grizzlies vs. Bucks Feb 03 $3,559 +$4,662 +131%
Celtics vs. 76ers Feb 02 $6,514 −$306 -5%
Suns vs. Trail Blazers Feb 02 $3,114 +$634 +20%
Lakers vs. Knicks Feb 02 $2,650 +$465 +18%
Kings vs. Thunder Feb 02 $2,196 +$571 +26%
Celtics vs. Pelicans Feb 01 $1,854 +$341 +18%
Lakers vs. Wizards Jan 31 $1,386 +$469 +34%
Pistons vs. Pacers Jan 30 $984 +$402 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 25¢ $9,461 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 24¢ $687 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 24¢ $6,795 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 27¢ $3,299 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 27¢ $15,065 17h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 98¢ $3,495 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 61¢ $10,000 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $10,000 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 54¢ $10,000 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $1,805 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,808 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,290 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,291 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 77¢ $1,012 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $1,012 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $48,702 12d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $6,803 12d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $8,351 12d
World Championships: Canada vs. Finland BUY Canada 63¢ $7,964 16d
World Championships: Canada vs. Finland BUY Canada 67¢ $3,030 16d
World Championships: Canada vs. Finland BUY Canada 66¢ $6,061 17d
World Championships: Canada vs. Finland BUY Canada 64¢ $1,011 17d
World Championships: Canada vs. Finland BUY Canada 66¢ $1,919 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $38,444 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $240 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $10,240 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $385 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $9,712 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 43¢ $7,683 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 58¢ $8,076 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 170 history records