Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:41:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
7A 0x7a17…910d sports 62 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$193 (-2%) realized −$193 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR66%break-even
Win rate72%44W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day39.5pace
Fees−$59est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$225
crypto 22% +$184
other 11% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +66%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 +5.7% -4.4% 72% 66% -10.1%
≤30d 61 +5.7% -4.4% 72% 66% -10.1%
≤90d 61 +5.7% -4.4% 72% 66% -10.1%
all 61 +5.7% -4.4% 72% 66% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.4% 66% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -13.5% 57% -18.7%
15% -21.9% 38% -26.6%
20% -29.5% 23% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$122 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$193
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses44 / 17
Est. fees paid−$59
Open positions1
Markets (closed)61 / 62
History coverage4d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day39.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Up 71¢ 70¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 20 $77 +$34 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $76 −$75 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 20 $201 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 20 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $129 +$136 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 20 $152 +$32 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 20 $217 +$33 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 20 $201 +$9 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 20 $152 +$23 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 20 $152 +$27 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 20 $81 +$17 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$17 +56%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $62 +$40 +65%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $64 −$63 -99%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $48 +$15 +30%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $165 −$163 -99%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Sebastian Ofner Jun 19 $101 +$96 +95%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $102 +$100 +99%
Nottingham Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Emma Navarro Jun 19 $3 +$1 +41%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Collignon (+1.5) Jun 19 $130 +$85 +66%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $99 +$82 +82%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $61 −$60 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $192 +$88 +46%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $151 +$41 +27%
Set Handicap: Humbert (-1.5) vs Medjedovic (+1.5) Jun 18 $116 +$35 +30%
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Roman Safiullin Jun 18 $50 +$66 +130%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $60 −$59 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $129 −$128 -99%
Czechia to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 18 $78 +$51 +64%
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 18 $244 −$176 -72%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng Jun 18 $257 −$97 -38%
Paul vs. Zandschulp: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 18 $101 +$60 +59%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 18 $101 +$39 +38%
Marozsan vs. Fritz: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 18 $207 −$205 -99%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 18 $261 −$259 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $191 +$76 +40%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $149 +$54 +36%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $108 +$26 +24%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $157 +$49 +31%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $125 +$32 +26%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $101 +$24 +24%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 +$98 +97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $98 −$97 -99%
Sabalenka vs. Alexandrova: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 17 $65 +$33 +51%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $202 −$160 -79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $111 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $26 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $205 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $100 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $265 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $26 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $103 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $184 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $101 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $250 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.82 · official $16.73 · 158 history records