Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:43:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7a18…a0f3 sports 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$13 (-2%) realized +$6 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%22W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days−$124
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$13
other 20% −$14
world 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -35.7% -41.8% 24% 24% -28.2%
≤30d 64 -17.7% -25.6% 34% 34% -10.8%
≤90d 64 -17.7% -25.6% 34% 34% -10.8%
all 64 -17.7% -25.6% 34% 34% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.6% 34% -10.8%
10% -32.7% 34% -19.3%
15% -39.2% 31% -27.1%
20% -45.1% 30% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$10 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$110
Realized+$6
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses22 / 42
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions6
Markets (closed)64 / 70
History coverage16d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 43¢ 37¢ $60 $52 −$8 (-13%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 72¢ 71¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 92¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? Yes 16¢ 4¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-76%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Over 34¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 +$28 +180%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $5 +$14 +276%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $20 +$32 +158%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $15 +$20 +134%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 14 $10 +$8 +76%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $30 +$24 +79%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5 +$11 +206%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $15 +$23 +152%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $15 +$64 +414%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 +$22 +109%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $5 +$10 +197%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +165%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $40 +$10 +26%
Roberto Alvarado: 2+ shots Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Croatia vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Wales vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Gibraltar (-1.5) Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Austria vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Northern Ireland vs. Guinea: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Albania vs. Israel: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Gibraltar vs. British Virgin Islands: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Albania vs. Israel: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Belarus vs. Burkina Faso: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Sweden vs. Italy: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Austria vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Andorra vs. Liechtenstein: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will British Virgin Islands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bahcesehir Koleji vs. Besiktas Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Spain vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Luxembourg (-1.5) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Liechtenstein win on 2026-06-09? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Israel win on 2026-06-09? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $61 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 34¢ $10 3h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 38¢ $31 10h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 41¢ $20 26h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Over 15¢ $5 26h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 26¢ $5 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 38¢ $20 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 42¢ $15 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $15 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 86¢ $1 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 42¢ $15 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $15 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 39¢ $10 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $20 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Over 13¢ $2 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $10 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 56¢ $10 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $30 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 36¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 32¢ $5 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 20¢ $15 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 39¢ $15 4d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 36¢ $15 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 33¢ $5 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $20 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 19¢ $15 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $40 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.63 · official $109.63 (match) · 121 history records