Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:18:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
7A 0x7a22…2dce crypto 173 markets active 1h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$10,099 (-19%) realized −$10,095 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate63%107W / 64L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$304per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$421est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$558now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$76
7 days+$76
14 days+$76
30 days+$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$8,530
crypto 17% −$1,916
weather 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -15.5% -23.5% 67% 33% +0.4%
≤30d 6 -15.5% -23.5% 67% 33% +0.4%
≤90d 171 -4.2% -13.3% 63% 43% -27.7%
all 171 -4.2% -13.3% 63% 43% -27.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 43% -27.7%
10% -21.6% 32% -34.6%
15% -29.2% 25% -40.9%
20% -36.1% 21% -46.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$305 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$558
Realized−$10,095
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses107 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$421
Open positions2
Markets (closed)171 / 173
History coverage71d
Avg bet$304
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 171 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 21? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $542 $546 +$4 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 21? No 80¢ 48¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$5 -31%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $614 +$113 +18%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner May 08 $10 +$1 +7%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 08 $10 +$1 +9%
LoL: T1 vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 08 $122 +$13 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 06 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 04 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 04 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 04 $1 $0 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 04 $1 $0 +10%
LoL: T1 vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Play May 04 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 03 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 03 $177 −$177 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 03 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 03 $100 +$1 +1%
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner May 03 $133 −$131 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 03 $102 +$37 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 03 $102 +$35 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 03 $104 −$102 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 03 $211 +$126 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 03 $5 +$13 +245%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 03 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 03 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 03 $103 +$59 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 03 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 03 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 03 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 03 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 03 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 03 $5 +$3 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 03 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 03 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 03 $4 +$2 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 03 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 03 $5 +$3 +65%
Will Atlas FC vs. CF Cruz Azul end in a draw? May 03 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 03 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 03 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 03 $5 +$7 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 01 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 01 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 01 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 01 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 01 $6 +$2 +32%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 26? Apr 27 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Apr 26 $22 −$22 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $543 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 0¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $20 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $19 2h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 29¢ $14 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 21? BUY No 80¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $727 3h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 84¢ $614 4h
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL Gen.G 100¢ $11 43d
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 93¢ $10 43d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 83¢ $11 43d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 75¢ $10 43d
LoL: T1 vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 SELL T1 100¢ $135 43d
LoL: T1 vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY T1 90¢ $122 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $1 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 47d
LoL: T1 vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Play SELL HANJIN BRION 1¢ $2 47d
LoL: T1 vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Play BUY HANJIN BRION 17¢ $27 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $558.19 · official $558.19 (match) · 558 history records