Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:04:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
7A 0x7a23…4454 crypto 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (62 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$13,305 (+39%) realized +$10,273 · open +$3,032
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +77% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +31% what you keep after slip
Net edge+31%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$1,990per market
Trades / day62.0pace
Fees−$266est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$21,993now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$9,379
other 24% +$8,572
crypto 16% +$1,415
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+60.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +77.3% +60.4% 62% 62% +92.9%
≤30d 8 +77.3% +60.4% 62% 62% +92.9%
≤90d 8 +77.3% +60.4% 62% 62% +92.9%
all 8 +77.3% +60.4% 62% 62% +92.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover62.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +60.4% 62% +92.9%
10% +45.1% 62% +74.4%
15% ← realistic here +31.1% 62% +57.6%
20% +18.2% 62% +42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +113% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +77% · $-wt +113% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,727 vs −$766 · ×4.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.1 per $1 lost it wins $8.1
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$21,993
Realized+$10,273
Unrealized+$3,032
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$266
Open positions9
Markets (closed)8 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1,990
Trades / day62.0
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: England (-1.5) Croatia 63¢ 80¢ $7,300 $9,274 +$1,974 (+27%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 42¢ 50¢ $4,400 $5,212 +$812 (+18%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers 59¢ 42¢ $4,150 $2,934 −$1,216 (-29%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? No 17¢ 36¢ $735 $1,563 +$828 (+113%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 34¢ $500 $1,014 +$514 (+103%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1,000 $912 −$88 (-9%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 17? Yes 7¢ 9¢ $400 $522 +$122 (+31%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? No 5¢ 6¢ $375 $485 +$110 (+29%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? No 2¢ 1¢ $100 $77 −$23 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $105 −$100 -95%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $641 +$2,351 +367%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $514 +$326 +64%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $2,533 +$1,927 +76%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,557 +$7,849 +307%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $5,890 +$6,180 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $1,856 −$1,800 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $423 −$399 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 58¢ $152 18m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 57¢ $2,026 18m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $512 48m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 53¢ $2,028 51m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 70¢ $1,110 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 41¢ $916 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $105 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,991 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 68¢ $1,212 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 12¢ $106 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 12¢ $106 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 6¢ $107 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 6¢ $80 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 5¢ $107 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $1,025 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 68¢ $3,029 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $2,035 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $1,526 1h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL New York Mets 100¢ $4,460 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 18¢ $211 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 19¢ $106 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 25¢ $105 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 22¢ $211 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 61¢ $2,023 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $308 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $206 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 17¢ $212 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 17¢ $106 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 17¢ $106 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 17¢ $106 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21,993.45 · official $21,874.35 (match) · 63 history records