Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:10:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7a24…a0fd sports 304 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,744 (-4%) realized −$1,745 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate60%181W / 122L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$138per market
Trades / day37.6pace
Fees−$540est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$849
7 days−$2,239
14 days−$2,019
30 days−$2,141
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$2,086
other 12% −$553
crypto 4% +$482
politics 0% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 96 -13.0% -21.3% 33% 31% -25.8%
≤30d 303 -4.1% -13.3% 60% 35% -14.2%
≤90d 303 -4.1% -13.3% 60% 35% -14.2%
all 303 -4.1% -13.3% 60% 35% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.3% 35% -14.2%
10% ← realistic here -21.6% 25% -22.4%
15% -29.1% 21% -29.9%
20% -36.1% 19% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$112 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$1,745
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses181 / 122
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$540
Open positions1
Markets (closed)303 / 304
History coverage26d
Avg bet$138
Trades / day37.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 303 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $59 $60 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $147 +$3 +2%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $43 −$42 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $52 −$51 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $76 −$75 -98%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 19 $297 +$127 +43%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $137 −$137 -100%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 19 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $97 −$97 -100%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Hanfmann (+1.5) Jun 19 $97 −$97 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $66 −$66 -100%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $65 +$184 +282%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $122 +$79 +65%
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 18 $97 −$97 -100%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $59 −$59 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry Jun 18 $110 −$110 -100%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 18 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $77 −$77 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $232 −$232 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $149 +$101 +67%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $61 +$199 +325%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 17 $85 −$85 -100%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 17 $77 −$77 -100%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 17 $58 −$58 -100%
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $202 −$202 -100%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $262 −$262 -100%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $57 +$192 +335%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $115 +$135 +117%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 17 $67 −$67 -100%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $74 −$74 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $75 +$175 +233%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $82 −$82 -100%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $87 −$87 -100%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $119 −$119 -100%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $112 −$112 -100%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $46 −$46 -100%
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 16 $124 +$126 +101%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $115 +$135 +117%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 16 $99 −$99 -100%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $104 +$145 +139%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $97 +$152 +156%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $124 −$124 -100%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $78 +$172 +221%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $114 +$135 +118%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $89 −$89 -100%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $77 +$173 +226%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $60 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 75¢ $135 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 75¢ $10 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 75¢ $5 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 41¢ $43 5h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 73¢ $147 5h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $52 7h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $76 7h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Tommy Paul 100¢ $424 8h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Tommy Paul 70¢ $4 9h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Tommy Paul 70¢ $7 9h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Tommy Paul 70¢ $210 9h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Tommy Paul 70¢ $76 9h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 54¢ $137 29h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 26¢ $66 29h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $39 31h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka SELL Rinky Hijikata 100¢ $250 31h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $58 32h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 81¢ $201 32h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $122 34h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Rinky Hijikata 26¢ $17 38h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Rinky Hijikata 26¢ $2 38h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Rinky Hijikata 26¢ $11 38h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Rinky Hijikata 26¢ $20 38h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Botic van de Zandschulp 24¢ $9 38h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Botic van de Zandschulp 24¢ $3 38h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Botic van de Zandschulp 24¢ $19 38h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Botic van de Zandschulp 24¢ $2 39h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Botic van de Zandschulp 24¢ $2 39h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Botic van de Zandschulp 24¢ $0 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.61 · official $59.61 (match) · 1221 history records