Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:49:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7a24…a695 other 8 markets active 11d ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$219 (-29%) realized −$219 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$248
sports 20% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 8 -12.4% -20.7% 50% 25% -36.1%
≤90d 8 -12.4% -20.7% 50% 25% -36.1%
all 8 -12.4% -20.7% 50% 25% -36.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 25% -36.1%
10% -28.3% 25% -42.2%
15% -35.2% 25% -47.8%
20% -41.6% 12% -52.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$100 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$219
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage6d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$127 +250%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$44 +44%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 11 $103 −$100 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 11d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $100 11d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 13d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 95¢ $100 13d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 15d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 17d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 17d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 12 history records