Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:02:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
7A 0x7a26…46c6 sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$989 (-21%) realized −$989 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$800per market
Trades / day17.0pace
Fees−$128est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,890
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-53.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -48.1% -53.0% 0% 0% -45.1%
≤30d 6 -48.1% -53.0% 0% 0% -45.1%
≤90d 6 -48.1% -53.0% 0% 0% -45.1%
all 6 -48.1% -53.0% 0% 0% -45.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -53.0% 0% -45.1%
10% ← realistic here -57.5% 0% -50.4%
15% -61.6% 0% -55.2%
20% -65.4% 0% -59.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -48% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$315 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$989
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 6
Est. fees paid−$128
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$800
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $2,658 −$560 -21%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $816 −$268 -33%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $202 −$10 -5%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $103 −$48 -47%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $919 −$919 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $102 −$85 -83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 39¢ $2,098 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 48¢ $2,658 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 11¢ $193 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 28¢ $511 2h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 72¢ $94 2h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 52¢ $98 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 63¢ $133 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 54¢ $0 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 47¢ $102 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 43¢ $222 2h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $202 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 38¢ $204 2h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $55 3h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 65¢ $919 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 3¢ $17 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 18¢ $102 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 18 history records