Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:59:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7a2a…394b other 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate54%14W / 12L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$2
other 40% +$3
sports 3% $0
tech 3% $0
weather 3% +$2
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.8% -8.8% 43% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 12 -2.1% -11.4% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 12 -2.1% -11.4% 50% 0% -9.5%
all 26 -0.3% -9.8% 54% 4% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 4% -8.9%
10% -18.4% 0% -17.6%
15% -26.3% 0% -25.6%
20% -33.5% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.12 per $1 lost it wins $2.12
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses14 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage473d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $43 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 19 $14 −$1 -6%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $44 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $36 +$1 +2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $39 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 27 $5 −$2 -32%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 24 $40 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 23 $44 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? Dec 11 $14 $0 +2%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 18 $2 $0 -5%
Will Lyon win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 18 $15 +$1 +7%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz in his first 100 days? Mar 31 $1 $0 -6%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 31 $14 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 21-28? Mar 25 $13 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 23 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 21 $15 $0 -0%
Will Club Brugge or Aston Villa advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 10 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 55°F or higher on March 4? Mar 06 $13 +$2 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $44 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $43 3h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $14 10h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $14 11h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $3 24h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $1 24h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $4 25h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $4 31h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $23 31h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $17 31h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $44 31h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $19 38h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $21 38h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $33 40h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $7 40h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $37 46h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $36 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $39 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $39 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $7 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $6 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes $1 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes $2 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes $1 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes $5 26d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $6 26d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $6 26d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $40 27d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $40 27d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $44 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 70 history records