Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:07:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7a2e…c5db weather 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$633 (-7%) realized −$636 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate55%30W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$216now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$94
14 days−$58
30 days−$537
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% −$445
other 25% −$20
weather 18% −$154
sports 18% −$87
politics 2% +$4
crypto 1% +$10
tech 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)+10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +106.0% +86.4% 41% 41% +27.6%
≤30d 53 +22.9% +11.2% 57% 15% -19.3%
≤90d 55 +21.9% +10.3% 55% 15% -17.1%
all 55 +21.9% +10.3% 55% 15% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.3% 15% -17.1%
10% -0.3% 13% -25.0%
15% -9.9% 9% -32.3%
20% -18.7% 7% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$33 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$216
Realized−$636
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses30 / 25
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions9
Markets (closed)55 / 64
History coverage34d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? No 99¢ 100¢ $74 $75 +$1 (+1%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 86¢ 99¢ $25 $28 +$4 (+15%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? No 86¢ 95¢ $22 $25 +$2 (+11%)
Belgium leading at halftime? Yes 54¢ 60¢ $18 $20 +$2 (+11%)
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Over 36¢ 30¢ $18 $15 −$3 (-18%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 20¢ $2 $5 +$2 (+105%)
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-46%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 3¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $48 −$1 -1%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $43 +$11 +24%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $14 +$5 +36%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $1 $0 -8%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $27 +$7 +24%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $3 +$47 +1521%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $20 +$19 +93%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $2 +$9 +414%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $8 $0 -2%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $38 −$1 -3%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 +$10 +132%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 −$3 -58%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -53%
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Jun 16 $4 −$1 -17%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $1 $0 -24%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $77 −$27 -35%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $18 +$4 +21%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $144 −$17 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $63 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $135 −$70 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $75 +$2 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on June 10? Jun 11 $51 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $16 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 9? Jun 10 $61 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 9? Jun 09 $73 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $57 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 8? Jun 09 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $113 −$41 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 8? Jun 09 $16 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $55 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $70 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $82 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 07 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 6? Jun 06 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 6? Jun 06 $77 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 4? Jun 05 $44 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 4? Jun 04 $64 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 4? Jun 04 $65 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 4? Jun 04 $80 −$20 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 4? Jun 04 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 4? Jun 04 $69 −$23 -33%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 3? Jun 04 $73 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $47 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 95¢ $48 1h
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 9h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 54¢ $18 30h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 47h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 80¢ $43 2d
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $19 2d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 19¢ $1 3d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 19¢ $1 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 80¢ $27 4d
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $22 4d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 5d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 51¢ $20 5d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 77¢ $8 5d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 77¢ $8 5d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL No 67¢ $36 5d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $38 5d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 5d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 34¢ $18 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 14¢ $8 5d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 5d
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 4¢ $2 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 9¢ $5 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 2¢ $0 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 4¢ $1 6d
OpenAI IPO before 2027? SELL No 46¢ $4 6d
OpenAI IPO before 2027? BUY No 53¢ $4 6d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 4¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $215.87 · official $215.87 (match) · 136 history records