Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:50:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7A 0x7a30…e0c1 sports 258 markets active 0h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$684 (+2%) realized +$697 · open −$13
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%106W / 143L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$380est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$417now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$158
7 days+$158
14 days+$158
30 days−$123
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$104
other 13% +$263
crypto 5% −$740
politics 3% +$1,059
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +111.5% +91.4% 100% 100% +63.1%
≤30d 5 -15.4% -23.4% 40% 40% -32.7%
≤90d 249 -3.7% -12.9% 43% 42% -8.0%
all 249 -3.7% -12.9% 43% 42% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 42% -8.0%
10% -21.2% 41% -16.8%
15% -28.8% 39% -24.8%
20% -35.8% 35% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$149 vs −$107 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$417
Realized+$697
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses106 / 143
Est. fees paid−$380
Open positions9
Markets (closed)249 / 258
History coverage70d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 249 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: France (-2.5) France 60¢ 60¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $70 $68 −$2 (-4%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Over 53¢ 54¢ $55 $56 +$1 (+1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $35 $34 −$1 (-2%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $27 −$3 (-10%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $17 −$3 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $61 +$119 +194%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $136 +$39 +29%
Cerundolo vs. Berrettini: Match O/U 40.5 Jun 01 $144 −$142 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Mensik vs Rublev May 31 $103 −$102 -99%
Mensik vs. Rublev: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 May 31 $38 −$37 -98%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) May 10 $336 −$330 -98%
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 210.5 May 10 $306 −$300 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 10 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 10 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 10 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 10 $53 +$18 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 10 $73 −$70 -95%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 211.5 May 09 $100 +$42 +42%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 212.5 May 09 $126 +$50 +40%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Hamad Medjedovic vs Joao Fonseca May 09 $51 +$504 +980%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 09 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) May 09 $51 +$100 +197%
VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5 May 09 $51 +$176 +344%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $48 −$47 -99%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 1.5 May 09 $51 −$50 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Frances Tiafoe vs Ignacio Buse May 09 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $51 +$74 +145%
VfB Stuttgart vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 4.5 May 09 $61 +$69 +114%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Flavio Cobolli vs Terence Atmane May 09 $51 −$50 -98%
Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 1.5 May 09 $51 −$50 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Tomas Etcheverry vs Mattia Bellucci May 09 $61 +$199 +324%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Mariano Navone May 09 $96 −$95 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Cristian Garin vs Alejandro Davidovich Fo May 09 $51 −$50 -98%
Wild vs. Avalanche May 04 $84 −$82 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres Apr 29 $45 −$44 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Apr 29 $274 +$167 +61%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 29 $97 +$182 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Apr 29 $98 −$94 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Apr 29 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Apr 29 $91 +$61 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Apr 29 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Apr 29 $155 −$150 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Apr 29 $52 −$50 -96%
Will Kashima Antlers win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Tōkyō Verdy win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $41 −$40 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics Apr 29 $54 +$102 +188%
Spread: Spurs (-12.5) Apr 29 $234 +$246 +105%
Will CDP Junior FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $162 +$77 +48%
CS Cristal vs. CDP Junior FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 29 $101 −$99 -98%
CA Lanús vs. LDU de Quito: O/U 1.5 Apr 29 $81 +$182 +226%
Madrid Open: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Apr 28 $102 −$100 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 221.5 Apr 28 $148 −$146 -99%
Racing Club vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 1.5 Apr 28 $50 −$50 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 111.5 Apr 28 $96 −$96 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 28 $96 −$96 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 60¢ $101 4m
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $56 5m
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 77¢ $136 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 34¢ $61 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $41 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $36 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $41 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 2h
Cerundolo vs. Berrettini: Match O/U 40.5 BUY Over 47¢ $144 21d
Set 1 Winner: Mensik vs Rublev BUY Rublev 53¢ $103 22d
Mensik vs. Rublev: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Over 34¢ $38 22d
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) BUY Lakers 41¢ $336 43d
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 210.5 BUY Under 34¢ $306 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $105 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up $53 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $16 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $70 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $53 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $73 43d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 211.5 SELL Over 100¢ $142 43d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 212.5 SELL Over 100¢ $176 43d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Hamad Medjedovic vs Joao Fonseca SELL Hamad Medjedovic 100¢ $555 43d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 211.5 BUY Over 70¢ $100 44d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Pistons 39¢ $102 44d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 212.5 BUY Over 71¢ $126 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $417.39 · official $417.53 (match) · 579 history records