Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:51:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
7A 0x7a30…8abd sports 1061 markets active 1h ago coverage 252d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$16,646 (+3%) realized +$16,811 · open −$165
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%565W / 483L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$596per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$2,936est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$8,779now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,831
7 days+$1,180
14 days−$203
30 days+$6,233
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$15,962
other 0% −$723
world 0% −$226
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 +9.3% -1.1% 60% 60% -6.4%
≤30d 232 +6.3% -3.8% 57% 57% -4.8%
≤90d 434 -4.4% -13.5% 52% 51% -19.9%
all 1048 +2.6% -7.2% 54% 54% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 54% -7.3%
10% -16.1% 54% -16.2%
15% -24.2% 54% -24.3%
20% -31.6% 54% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$750) neutral
Persistence
early +10% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$532 vs −$591 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

252d coverage
Net worth$8,779
Realized+$16,811
Unrealized−$165
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses565 / 483
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$2,936
Open positions13
Markets (closed)1048 / 1061
History coverage252d
Avg bet$596
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 1048 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Over 52¢ 52¢ $1,083 $1,103 +$20 (+2%)
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Under 53¢ 52¢ $878 $870 −$8 (-1%)
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Over 54¢ 55¢ $819 $821 +$1 (+0%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5 Over 53¢ 50¢ $860 $806 −$54 (-6%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Over 52¢ 52¢ $813 $805 −$8 (-1%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 Under 56¢ 56¢ $801 $799 −$2 (-0%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Over 52¢ 52¢ $798 $785 −$13 (-2%)
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $750 $742 −$8 (-1%)
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Under 50¢ 48¢ $750 $728 −$22 (-3%)
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Panama 59¢ 58¢ $432 $429 −$4 (-1%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 1.5 Over 53¢ 53¢ $341 $340 −$1 (-0%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 54¢ 51¢ $351 $332 −$20 (-6%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees No 57¢ 47¢ $266 $219 −$47 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 439 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 23 $168 +$133 +79%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 23 $465 +$470 +101%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 23 $573 +$494 +86%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 23 $924 +$737 +80%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 22 $594 −$586 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 22 $619 −$611 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 22 $792 −$780 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 22 $153 −$151 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 22 $724 −$716 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 22 $368 −$362 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 22 $762 −$750 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 22 $705 −$705 -100%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 22 $951 +$725 +76%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 21 $964 −$964 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5 Jun 21 $327 +$221 +67%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $15 +$15 +105%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 21 $330 −$325 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 21 $928 −$915 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $883 −$871 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $366 −$361 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $827 −$816 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $845 +$740 +88%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 21 $860 +$740 +86%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 21 $540 +$295 +55%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 20 $508 +$492 +97%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $674 +$493 +73%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $762 +$770 +101%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $1,239 +$836 +67%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 20 $356 +$294 +83%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $1,062 +$716 +67%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $742 −$732 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $928 −$915 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 19 $573 −$566 -99%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 Jun 19 $848 +$738 +87%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5 Jun 18 $58 +$47 +82%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $534 +$498 +93%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $631 +$545 +86%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 18 $356 −$351 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $404 −$399 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $318 +$296 +93%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $451 −$445 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $404 −$399 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $455 +$295 +65%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $699 +$491 +70%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $550 +$493 +90%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $264 +$246 +93%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $645 +$492 +76%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $258 +$197 +76%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $28 +$22 +76%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $372 −$367 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 55¢ $352 33m
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 54¢ $479 34m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 56¢ $531 42m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 55¢ $281 43m
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 53¢ $860 51m
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 50¢ $761 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 53¢ $891 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $56 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $290 1h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Panama 59¢ $438 1h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 52¢ $395 9h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 52¢ $11 10h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 SELL Over 52¢ $1 11h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 53¢ $161 11h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 SELL Over 52¢ $3 11h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 53¢ $107 11h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 53¢ $11 11h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 53¢ $11 11h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 53¢ $11 11h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 53¢ $11 11h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 53¢ $11 11h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 53¢ $11 11h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 52¢ $21 11h
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 50¢ $761 11h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 52¢ $19 11h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 52¢ $30 11h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 52¢ $824 12h
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 47¢ $239 12h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY New York Yankees 54¢ $594 22h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 55¢ $619 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,778.55 · official $8,778.56 (match) · 2276 history records