Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:46:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
7A 0x7a32…f3fe other 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,269 (-79%) realized −$1,248 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -80% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -82% what you keep after slip
Net edge-82%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$228per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$213now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$1,269
sports 19% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-81.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -79.8% -81.7% 17% 17% -92.3%
≤30d 6 -79.8% -81.7% 17% 17% -92.3%
≤90d 6 -79.8% -81.7% 17% 17% -92.3%
all 6 -79.8% -81.7% 17% 17% -92.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -81.7% 17% -92.3%
10% -83.4% 0% -93.0%
15% -85.0% 0% -93.7%
20% -86.5% 0% -94.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -92% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -80% · $-wt -92% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$254 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$213
Realized−$1,248
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage2d
Avg bet$228
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Josh Hokit 80¢ 80¢ $214 $213 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $994 $0 −$994 (-100%)
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $126 $0 −$126 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $96 +$21 +22%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $129 −$126 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $51 −$49 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,006 −$994 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 80¢ $116 25m
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai SELL Mauricio Ruffy 99¢ $116 27m
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 80¢ $99 32m
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 81¢ $96 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 12¢ $129 27h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 29h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 34h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 34h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1,006 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $212.88 · official $212.88 (match) · 9 history records