Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:11:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7a32…2fcd sports 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$821 (-41%) realized −$821 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate30%10W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$65
7 days+$35
14 days+$35
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$427
finance 18% −$350
other 4% +$5
crypto 2% −$35
world 1% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-39.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -17.8% -25.6% 33% 22% +3.7%
≤30d 9 -17.8% -25.6% 33% 22% +3.7%
≤90d 11 -32.7% -39.1% 27% 18% -63.0%
all 33 -32.6% -39.0% 30% 24% -48.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.0% 24% -48.3%
10% -44.9% 21% -53.2%
15% -50.2% 21% -57.7%
20% -55.1% 21% -61.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -59% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$54 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$821
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses10 / 23
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 35
History coverage152d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $52 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 20 $45 −$45 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $10 −$3 -30%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $26 +$38 +149%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $52 +$89 +171%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $26 −$13 -51%
Warriors vs. Suns Apr 18 $85 −$85 -100%
Crude Oil all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $350 −$350 -100%
Kings vs. Lakers Mar 02 $75 −$75 -100%
Kings vs. Lakers: O/U 234.5 Mar 02 $75 −$70 -93%
Spread: Lakers (-13.5) Mar 02 $75 −$64 -86%
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Mar 01 $75 +$10 +14%
Spread: Pelicans (-6.5) Mar 01 $75 +$88 +117%
Pelicans vs. Jazz: O/U 245.5 Mar 01 $75 −$4 -6%
Pelicans vs. Jazz Mar 01 $75 −$75 -100%
Spread: Raptors (-13.5) Mar 01 $75 −$75 -100%
Raptors vs. Wizards Mar 01 $38 −$38 -100%
Raptors vs. Wizards: O/U 230.5 Mar 01 $75 −$75 -100%
Raptors vs. Wizards: O/U 229.5 Mar 01 $75 −$75 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-2.5) Mar 01 $37 +$35 +92%
Rockets vs. Heat: O/U 225.5 Mar 01 $75 +$5 +6%
Rockets vs. Heat Mar 01 $37 +$48 +127%
Spread: Rockets (-3.5) Mar 01 $75 +$57 +75%
Spread: Thunder (-7.5) Feb 28 $75 −$4 -6%
Nuggets vs. Thunder Feb 28 $75 −$75 -100%
Men's Semifinals - Canada vs. Finland Feb 20 $25 +$35 +141%
Will Bobby Portis Jr. win the 2026 NBA 3-point contest? Feb 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Devin Booker win the 2026 NBA 3-point contest? Feb 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Feb 02 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 21, 2026 (ET)? Feb 02 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $52 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $52 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score AND Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: BUY 15¢ $26 8h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 45h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes $10 47h
Spread: Australia (-1.5) BUY Australia $6 2d
Spread: Australia (-1.5) BUY Australia $12 2d
Spread: Australia (-1.5) BUY Australia $26 2d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over $7 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over $10 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score AND England vs. Croatia: BUY $10 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 39¢ $26 4d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $31 4d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $13 4d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 4d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 36¢ $109 4d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $52 4d
Warriors vs. Suns BUY Warriors $10 64d
Warriors vs. Suns BUY Warriors $25 64d
Warriors vs. Suns BUY Warriors 22¢ $50 64d
Crude Oil all time high by March 31? BUY Yes 12¢ $100 95d
Crude Oil all time high by March 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $250 101d
Kings vs. Lakers: O/U 234.5 SELL Over $1 111d
Kings vs. Lakers: O/U 234.5 SELL Over $4 111d
Spread: Lakers (-13.5) SELL Kings $11 111d
Spread: Lakers (-13.5) BUY Kings 53¢ $37 111d
Kings vs. Lakers BUY Kings 14¢ $37 111d
Kings vs. Lakers BUY Kings 14¢ $37 111d
Kings vs. Lakers: O/U 234.5 BUY Over 53¢ $37 111d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 92 history records