Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:58:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7A 0x7a35…3c5f world 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 468d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate61%11W / 7L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% +$1
other 20% $0
economics 8% $0
politics 7% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.2% -9.4% 20% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 6 +0.2% -9.3% 33% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 6 +0.2% -9.3% 33% 0% -9.3%
all 18 +0.5% -9.0% 61% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 0% -9.2%
10% -17.7% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×29.39 per $1 lost it wins $29.39
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

468d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses11 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage468d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $31 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $64 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $61 +$1 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $32 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Dec 14 $2 $0 -3%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 27 $10 $0 +4%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 05 $2 $0 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $2 $0 +2%
Will Karoline Leavitt be out as White House Press Secretary in Trump's Apr 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Raymond Burke be the next pope? Apr 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next C Apr 17 $11 $0 +1%
Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and FDP form the next German Government? Mar 30 $13 $0 +0%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Mar 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Mar 19 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $30 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $30 5h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $30 14h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $30 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $31 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $31 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $17 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $11 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $6 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $34 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $6 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $25 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $23 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $8 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $31 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $4 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $26 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 55¢ $7 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 55¢ $24 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $12 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $18 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $26 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $7 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $32 11d
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL No 83¢ $1 339d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? SELL No 99¢ $1 339d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL No 96¢ $11 357d
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY No 93¢ $2 358d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $2 379d
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el BUY No 98¢ $2 393d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 50 history records