trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | -1.2% | -10.6% | 86% | 14% | -12.6% |
| ≤30d | 10 | +20.8% | +9.3% | 90% | 30% | -8.4% |
| ≤90d | 20 | +9.4% | -1.1% | 80% | 40% | -0.6% |
| all | 20 | +9.4% | -1.1% | 80% | 40% | -0.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -1.1% | 40% | -0.6% |
| 10% | -10.5% | 30% | -10.1% |
| 15% | -19.2% | 25% | -18.8% |
| 20% | -27.1% | 10% | -26.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | Yes | 65¢ | 74¢ | $50 | $57 | +$7 (+13%) |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | No | 79¢ | 86¢ | $50 | $55 | +$5 (+9%) |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | No | 96¢ | 97¢ | $30 | $30 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? | No | 88¢ | 96¢ | $20 | $22 | +$2 (+9%) |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | No | 80¢ | 76¢ | $20 | $19 | −$1 (-5%) |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | No | 93¢ | 99¢ | $10 | $11 | +$1 (+7%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | No | 5¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-97%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 17 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | Jun 17 | $30 | +$1 | +4% |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? | Jun 17 | $30 | +$1 | +4% |
| US military draft authorized in 2026? | Jun 17 | $133 | +$2 | +1% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Jun 13 | $50 | +$13 | +26% |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? | Jun 11 | $67 | +$2 | +2% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | Jun 10 | $70 | −$33 | -46% |
| World Championships: Switzerland/Norway vs. Canada/Finland | May 30 | $5 | +$2 | +44% |
| World Championships: Canada vs. Finland | May 30 | $10 | +$18 | +172% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | May 29 | $50 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? | May 17 | $50 | +$29 | +57% |
| Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? | May 17 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will France win Eurovision 2026? | May 17 | $16 | −$16 | -100% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | May 03 | $83 | −$5 | -6% |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? | Apr 29 | $50 | +$11 | +21% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? | Apr 13 | $100 | +$16 | +16% |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Apr 12 | $115 | +$53 | +46% |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Mar 30 | $50 | +$20 | +41% |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | Mar 25 | $65 | +$2 | +4% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31? | Mar 23 | $121 | +$2 | +2% |