Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:38:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7a39…e596 other 206 markets active 2h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,826 (-20%) realized −$1,825 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%101W / 104L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$132now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$981
14 days−$940
30 days−$940
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$1,758
sports 1% −$18
world 1% −$35
politics 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -81.1% -82.9% 9% 9% -85.7%
≤30d 48 -72.5% -75.1% 12% 12% -80.7%
≤90d 48 -72.5% -75.1% 12% 12% -80.7%
all 205 -12.9% -21.2% 49% 48% -28.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.2% 48% -28.3%
10% -28.8% 41% -35.2%
15% -35.6% 32% -41.5%
20% -41.9% 28% -47.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -79% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -47% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$33 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$132
Realized−$1,825
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses101 / 104
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)205 / 206
History coverage240d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 205 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $133 $132 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$13 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$10 +97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-04? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-01-04? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-02-02? Jun 19 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-01? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-20? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-04? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-17? Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-12-28? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-01-28? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-18? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-01-03? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-24? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Manchester United FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Manchester United FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$6 -56%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-01-01? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-01-04? Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-04? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-01-01? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-14? Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-30? Jun 19 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-01? Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-28? Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-01? Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-30? Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-14? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-27? Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-07? Jun 19 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2025-12-28? Jun 19 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Phan Văn Giang be the next President of Vietnam? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-04? Jun 19 $61 −$61 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-17? Jun 19 $86 −$86 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $71 +$39 +54%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$11 +213%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$32 +156%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-10? Mar 11 $50 +$33 +67%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-01? Feb 02 $10 +$6 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $33 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 46h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $11 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $110 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $71 5d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 5d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 5d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 6d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 93¢ $16 6d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 7d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 7d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 7d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 7d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 7d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 10d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 10d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $52 10d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 10d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-14? BUY Yes 60¢ $40 99d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-10? BUY Yes 60¢ $50 103d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? BUY Yes 41¢ $50 103d
Will FC Porto win on 2026-02-02? BUY Yes 79¢ $17 139d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-01? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 140d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-01? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 140d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $132.02 · official $132.02 (match) · 443 history records