Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:12:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7A
0x7a3b…4c15
other · 34 markets active 1h ago
1.0score
+$1 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$0 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$37
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses9 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage273d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 1 History 33 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $36 $37 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $40 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $36 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 09 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 09 $29 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October? Oct 09 $29 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke in 2025? Oct 04 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 02 $61 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 02 $31 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 01 $31 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 30 $25 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 30 $15 $0 -1%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 30 $30 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Sep 30 $27 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Sep 28 $12 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Sep 27 $1 $0 +14%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 27 $5 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Sep 26 $6 $0 -2%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 26 $4 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 26 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 25 $30 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Sep 17 $18 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 16 $1 $0 -7%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 16 $31 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 14 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 13 $31 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 23% $0
other 19% $0
politics 14% $0
sports 14% $0
crypto 12% $0
economics 8% $0
tech 4% $0
finance 3% $0
culture 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $36 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $26 9h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $14 9h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 34¢ $40 10h
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $40 2d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $40 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 66¢ $3 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 66¢ $34 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 66¢ $36 2d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL No 98¢ $2 246d
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 96¢ $29 246d
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 96¢ $29 246d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October? SELL No 98¢ $29 246d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October? BUY No 98¢ $29 250d
Iran Nuke in 2025? SELL No 96¢ $29 251d
Iran Nuke in 2025? BUY No 96¢ $29 251d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $29 251d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $31 251d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $31 253d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $19 253d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $12 253d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $31 253d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $31 253d
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 92¢ $26 253d
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 92¢ $5 253d
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 92¢ $31 253d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 91¢ $31 254d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 91¢ $31 254d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL No 97¢ $30 254d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 97¢ $30 254d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 33% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 33% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 33% 0% -9.4%
all 33 +0.1% -9.4% 27% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 3% -9.5%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.72 · official $36.73 (match) · 103 history records