Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:06:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7A
0x7a3c…977c
world · 44 markets active 5d ago
2.5score
+$14,183 +24%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$14,183 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$14,183
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses27 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage154d
Avg bet$1,347
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 0 History 44 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$15,592
14 days+$15,374
30 days+$17,440
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $191 $0 −$191 (-100%)
Military action against Iran ends by April 12, 2026? No 31¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale? No 42¢ 0¢ $42 $0 −$42 (-100%)
Military action against Iran ends by April 10, 2026? No 31¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31? Yes 76¢ 0¢ $687 $0 −$687 (-100%)
Military action against Iran ends by April 11, 2026? No 27¢ 0¢ $67 $0 −$67 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $1 $0 -9%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $5,921 +$14,290 +241%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $950 +$1,302 +137%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 04 $195 −$31 -16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $1,525 +$800 +52%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $198 −$191 -96%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $1,329 −$1,155 -87%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $3,141 +$415 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $193 +$43 +22%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $2,542 +$2,073 +82%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? May 28 $200 +$25 +12%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 28 $2,063 +$2,292 +111%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 27 $4,373 −$3,825 -88%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $861 +$44 +5%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 26 $423 +$1,113 +263%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? May 26 $626 +$1,935 +309%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? May 26 $372 +$1,350 +363%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $5,532 −$2,716 -49%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 24 $286 −$225 -79%
Military action against Iran ends by April 11, 2026? Apr 09 $67 −$67 -100%
Military action against Iran ends by April 10, 2026? Apr 08 $41 −$41 -100%
Military action against Iran ends by April 9, 2026? Apr 08 $16 +$2 +14%
Military action against Iran ends by April 12, 2026? Apr 08 $11 −$11 -100%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31? Feb 28 $687 −$687 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 28 $504 +$182 +36%
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? Feb 28 $532 +$27 +5%
US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026? Feb 28 $1,319 +$466 +35%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $10,370 −$4,012 -39%
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026? Feb 27 $1,543 +$265 +17%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 27 $1,421 +$2 +0%
US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026? Feb 27 $47 +$7 +14%
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026? Feb 27 $99 +$15 +15%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Feb 19 $4,012 +$145 +4%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 18 $7,028 +$489 +7%
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24? Jan 25 $122 +$46 +38%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 21 $55 +$2 +4%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 18 $294 −$61 -21%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jan 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Jan 12 $40 $0 -1%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Jan 11 $7 +$1 +8%
Over $100M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $78 +$30 +39%
Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 08 $42 −$42 -100%
Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 08 $65 +$3 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 98% +$15,123
other 2% −$796
crypto 0% −$191
politics 0% +$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $18,390 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 31¢ $980 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $993 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 35¢ $189 4d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $570 7d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $164 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $250 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $250 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $8 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $20 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $62 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $766 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? SELL No 93¢ $1,767 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $558 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? SELL No 93¢ $558 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $456 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $585 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $955 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $1,821 9d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $94 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $104 10d
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? BUY No 0¢ $100 11d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? BUY No 0¢ $100 11d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $18 12d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $18 12d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $0 12d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $0 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +123.1% +101.9% 67% 67% +195.8%
≤30d 20 +54.3% +39.6% 60% 55% +41.7%
≤90d 24 +33.3% +20.6% 54% 50% +41.1%
all 44 +15.1% +4.2% 61% 43% +12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.2% 43% +12.1%
10% -5.8% 30% +1.4%
15% -14.9% 25% -8.4%
20% -23.2% 18% -17.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 549 history records