Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:22:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
7A 0x7a3c…4b61 crypto 1052 markets active 1h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$528 (-1%) realized −$130 · open −$398
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate47%496W / 553L
Whale WR87%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$240est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$141now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$60
7 days−$1,375
14 days−$1,544
30 days−$4,391
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% −$708
other 32% +$1,910
crypto 15% −$958
politics 4% −$40
world 3% −$808
finance 1% −$191
tech 0% −$2
economics 0% $0
culture 0% −$2
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -44.1% -49.4% 40% 20% -75.6%
≤30d 139 -45.5% -50.7% 28% 24% -31.9%
≤90d 266 -9.2% -17.9% 39% 35% -8.4%
all 1049 -9.3% -17.9% 47% 42% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 42% -10.4%
10% -25.8% 36% -18.9%
15% -32.9% 30% -26.8%
20% -39.5% 23% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 87% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$26 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$141
Realized−$130
Unrealized−$398
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses496 / 553
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$240
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1049 / 1052
History coverage238d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1049 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score No 64¢ 64¢ $77 $76 −$1 (-1%)
Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election? Yes 66¢ 7¢ $407 $46 −$361 (-89%)
Ben Pasternak jailed? Yes 18¢ 6¢ $55 $19 −$36 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $46 +$33 +73%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 21 $402 +$27 +7%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $377 −$370 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $805 −$791 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $273 −$273 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $240 −$240 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $143 −$142 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $413 +$243 +59%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $125 +$59 +47%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $16 −$16 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $274 +$311 +114%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $113 −$112 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $599 +$282 +47%
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $184 −$182 -99%
Liberia vs. Sierra Leone: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $46 −$45 -99%
Liberia vs. Sierra Leone: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $189 −$187 -99%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $203 −$200 -99%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $42 −$42 -98%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $7 −$7 -98%
Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $89 +$13 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $1 +$5 +632%
Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $18 +$22 +121%
Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $102 −$2 -2%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $511 +$88 +17%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $223 −$219 -98%
England vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $1 +$6 +614%
Bolivia vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $90 +$124 +138%
Will Panama vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 06 $199 +$201 +101%
Cabo Verde vs. Bermuda: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $16 −$16 -97%
Will Luxembourg win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $267 +$133 +50%
Will Romania vs. Wales end in a draw? Jun 06 $274 −$270 -99%
Romania vs. Wales: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $179 −$179 -100%
Gibraltar vs. Cayman Islands: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $5 −$5 -99%
Gibraltar vs. Cayman Islands: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Cayman Islands win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $136 +$64 +47%
Armenia vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $5 −$4 -98%
Armenia vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $4 −$4 -97%
Myanmar vs. Guam: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Myanmar vs. Guam: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $10 −$10 -97%
Will France vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 04 $25 −$15 -60%
Will Spain vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 04 $138 +$257 +187%
Will Trump praise Vladimir Putin by June 30? Jun 04 $61 −$60 -98%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 04 $9 −$8 -98%
Makarska: Robin Montgomery vs Lea Boskovic Jun 04 $60 +$19 +31%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India Jun 02 $14 +$16 +114%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $212 +$88 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $78 39m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $79 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $46 3h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 94¢ $45 3h
Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership e BUY Yes 41¢ $25 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 39¢ $377 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 45¢ $716 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $89 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $273 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $218 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $9 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 7d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 71¢ $143 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $413 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 7d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 89¢ $106 7d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 89¢ $28 7d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 62¢ $1 7d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 62¢ $58 7d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 62¢ $66 7d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 23¢ $16 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $585 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $274 9d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 56¢ $113 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 68¢ $599 10d
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 76¢ $184 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $140.66 · official $140.66 (match) · 3316 history records